Closing spread
IND -10.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play+0.060
- 37.6%Success rate44.6%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.213EPA / rush+0.065
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.54CPOE-2.41
- 38.7%Third-down rate41.9%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.50Points / drive2.35
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 29/43 | 243 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 9 | 13 | 89 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 11/20 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 14 | 145 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 51 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.76