2021 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

3·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -10.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.134EPA / play+0.060
  • 37.6%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.213EPA / rush+0.065
  • 6.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.54CPOE-2.41
  • 38.7%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.35
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
HOUQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:28415Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:321144Punt0–0
INDQ1 5:10792Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 1:52425Punt0–7
INDQ2 14:55554Field goal0–10
HOUQ2 12:591262Field goal3–10
INDQ2 6:16737Punt3–10
HOUQ2 1:49941Punt3–10
INDQ2 0:0400End of half3–10
INDQ3 15:0030Punt3–10
HOUQ3 12:4410Turnover3–10
INDQ3 12:36228Touchdown3–17
HOUQ3 11:50628Punt3–17
INDQ3 8:53488Touchdown3–24
HOUQ3 6:371453Turnover on downs3–24
INDQ4 14:5233Punt3–24
HOUQ4 13:56737Turnover3–24
INDQ4 10:08963Touchdown3–31
HOUQ4 4:47655Turnover3–31
INDQ4 3:2139Punt3–31
HOUQ4 1:102-1End of half3–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills29/4324302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram18734.10
Phillip Lindsay7395.60
David Johnson273.50
Davis Mills252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks913890
Nico Collins46440
Jordan Akins46410
Phillip Lindsay22150
David Johnson12140
Chris Moore45140
Chris Conley12100
Mark Ingram2280
Pharaoh Brown2380
Rex Burkhead0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz11/2022320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor1414510.42
Nyheim Hines4133.30
Marlon Mack5122.40
Michael Pittman133.00
Carson Wentz210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton44800
Parris Campbell11511
Michael Pittman23350
Mo Alie-Cox13281
Jonathan Taylor12130
Nyheim Hines1290
Ashton Dulin1170
Jack Doyle0100
Zach Pascal0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.76