2009 · Week 17

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

33·7

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

42

Model margin

-1.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.124EPA / play-0.026
  • 44.9%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.018EPA / rush-0.143
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +3.74CPOE+3.71
  • 47.0%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.75
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–5 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7GB @ ARI27–23GB
2024 · W6ARI @ GB13–34GB
2021 · W8GB @ ARI24–21GB
2018 · W13ARI @ GB20–17ARI
2015 · playoffsGB @ ARI20–26ARI
2015 · W16GB @ ARI8–38ARI
2012 · W9ARI @ GB17–31GB
2009 · playoffsGB @ ARI45–51ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ARI
GBQ1 15:001351Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 8:45520Punt7–0
GBQ1 6:00686Touchdown14–0
ARIQ1 2:41417Punt14–0
GBQ1 0:43518Punt14–0
ARIQ2 13:2231Safety16–0
GBQ2 12:331053Field goal19–0
ARIQ2 6:33412Opp touchdown26–0
ARIQ2 4:31749Turnover26–0
GBQ2 1:2129End of half26–0
ARIQ3 15:00616Punt26–0
GBQ3 11:471494Touchdown33–0
ARIQ3 4:161255Punt33–0
GBQ4 13:0062Punt33–0
ARIQ4 9:09514Turnover33–0
GBQ4 6:54615Turnover33–6
ARIQ4 3:0413Touchdown33–7
GBQ4 2:59220End of half33–7

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/2623510
Matt Flynn1/3701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant11514.61
Ahman Green12423.50
Brandon Jackson6172.80
Aaron Rodgers221.01
Matt Flynn3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver66650
Jordy Nelson11510
Jermichael Finley45341
Greg Jennings36290
Brandon Jackson22290
James Jones36170
Donald Lee22130

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Leinart13/219602
Kurt Warner4/63100
Brian St. Pierre2/41211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower6244.00
Chris Wells6193.20
LaRod Stephens-Howling133.00
Brian St. Pierre122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin36380
Early Doucet45280
Stephen Spach12220
Larry Fitzgerald37171
Steve Breaston34160
Jerheme Urban22130
Tim Hightower2340
Jason Wright1110
Chris Wells0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.77