Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
42
Model margin
-1.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play-0.026
- 44.9%Success rate45.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.018EPA / rush-0.143
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- +3.74CPOE+3.71
- 47.0%Third-down rate36.7%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 2.22Points / drive1.75
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–5 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. ARI are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/26 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 6 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 1 | 51 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| James Jones | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 13/21 | 96 | 0 | 2 |
| Kurt Warner | 4/6 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian St. Pierre | 2/4 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian St. Pierre | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 7 | 17 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.77