2021 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

15·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CLE -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.014
  • 40.2%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.078EPA / rush+0.015
  • 7.1%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -2.66CPOE-2.26
  • 39.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.81
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001263Field goal0–3
PITQ1 8:09827Punt0–3
CLEQ1 4:19850Turnover on downs0–3
PITQ2 14:541057Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 9:1830Punt3–3
PITQ2 8:3030Punt3–3
CLEQ2 7:163-5Punt3–3
PITQ2 6:071253Turnover on downs3–3
CLEQ2 1:38524Punt3–3
PITQ2 0:2100End of half3–3
PITQ3 15:0035Punt3–3
CLEQ3 13:55881Touchdown3–10
PITQ3 9:361378Touchdown9–10
CLEQ3 3:3939Punt9–10
PITQ3 1:421488Touchdown15–10
CLEQ4 11:04859Turnover15–10
PITQ4 6:0438Punt15–10
CLEQ4 4:22925Turnover on downs15–10
PITQ4 1:53654Turnover on downs15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3426610
Chris Boswell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris26913.51
Chase Claypool2168.00
Ray-Ray McCloud11010.00
Anthony McFarland111.00
Ben Roethlisberger100.00
Kalen Ballage1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson613980
Chase Claypool45450
Pat Freiermuth47441
Zach Gentry35390
Najee Harris33290
Benny Snell1170
James Washington1140

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield20/3122500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb16613.80
D'Ernest Johnson4225.51
Jarvis Landry155.00
Baker Mayfield155.00
Demetric Felton133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry510650
David Njoku33390
Harrison Bryant22330
Rashard Higgins24270
Austin Hooper46260
Demetric Felton11140
Nick Chubb1180
D'Ernest Johnson1370
Odell Beckham Jr.1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+2.16