Closing spread
CLE -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.014
- 40.2%Success rate43.7%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.078EPA / rush+0.015
- 7.1%Explosive rate11.2%
- -2.66CPOE-2.26
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.65Points / drive1.81
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/34 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Boswell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 26 | 91 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 13 | 98 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Zach Gentry | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| James Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/31 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.16