2021 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

34·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

51

Model margin

+1.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.060
  • 44.7%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.054EPA / rush+0.065
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.33CPOE-2.41
  • 43.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.15Points / drive2.35
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:001482Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 8:4123Turnover0–13
INDQ1 7:4917Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 7:4439Punt0–14
INDQ1 6:03728Turnover on downs0–14
TENQ1 2:551160Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 12:0747Punt7–14
TENQ2 9:14832Turnover13–14
TENQ2 4:24157Touchdown14–14
INDQ2 4:131357Field goal14–17
TENQ3 15:001470Touchdown21–17
INDQ3 7:42518Punt21–17
TENQ3 5:28414Punt21–17
INDQ3 3:42516Touchdown21–24
TENQ3 1:211142Field goal24–24
INDQ4 11:151528Punt24–24
TENQ4 5:251039Punt30–24
INDQ4 1:3310Opp touchdown31–24
INDQ4 1:26848Touchdown31–31
TENQ4 0:221-8End of half31–31
INDOT34Punt31–31
TENOT38Punt31–31
INDOT412Turnover31–31
TENOT415Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3326532
A.J. Brown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry28682.40
Ryan Tannehill22613.00
Logan Woodside1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown10111551
Jeremy McNichols33330
Geoff Swaim45231
MyCole Pruitt22220
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine23161
Marcus Johnson1580
Anthony Firkser1280
Chester Rogers0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz27/5123132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor16704.41
Carson Wentz3113.70
Nyheim Hines122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman1015862
Jonathan Taylor34520
Zach Pascal58430
Nyheim Hines45220
T.Y. Hilton25160
Jack Doyle22121
Mo Alie-Cox0400
Ashton Dulin0400
Kylen Granson1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.35