Closing spread
IND -3
Total
51
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.060
- 44.7%Success rate44.6%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.054EPA / rush+0.065
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.33CPOE-2.41
- 43.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.15Points / drive2.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/33 | 265 | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 68 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Logan Woodside | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 11 | 155 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 27/51 | 231 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 15 | 86 | 2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.35