2021 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

17·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -10.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.060
  • 44.0%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.113EPA / rush+0.065
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -4.53CPOE-2.41
  • 35.6%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.35
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:00963Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 9:5736Opp touchdown0–10
JAXQ1 8:2332Punt0–10
INDQ1 6:55853Touchdown0–17
JAXQ1 2:48478Touchdown6–17
INDQ1 1:0330Punt6–17
JAXQ2 14:4833Punt6–17
INDQ2 13:48414Punt6–17
JAXQ2 11:04417Punt6–17
INDQ2 9:0534Punt6–17
JAXQ2 7:2938Punt6–17
INDQ2 5:22861Field goal6–20
JAXQ2 1:4338Punt6–20
INDQ2 1:05410Punt6–20
JAXQ2 0:36532Field goal9–20
JAXQ3 15:00951Missed field goal9–20
INDQ3 10:5536Punt9–20
JAXQ3 9:14936Punt9–20
INDQ3 4:20516Punt9–20
JAXQ3 0:441060Touchdown17–20
INDQ4 10:343-3Punt17–20
JAXQ4 8:2431Punt17–20
INDQ4 7:281174Field goal17–23
JAXQ4 2:22629Turnover17–23
INDQ4 0:5000End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence16/3516200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Agnew37926.31
James Robinson12574.81
Trevor Lawrence5336.60
Laviska Shenault Jr.263.00
Carlos Hyde242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dan Arnold58670
Marvin Jones26350
James Robinson45270
Laquon Treadwell11180
Laviska Shenault Jr.38150
Carlos Hyde1200
Jamal Agnew0500

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz22/3418000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor211165.51
Nyheim Hines2126.00
Carson Wentz4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman55710
Jack Doyle35310
Nyheim Hines24170
Ashton Dulin11160
Kylen Granson11150
Jonathan Taylor68100
Zach Pascal2290
Mo Alie-Cox1260
T.Y. Hilton1550

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.01