Closing spread
IND -10.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.060
- 44.0%Success rate44.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.113EPA / rush+0.065
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.53CPOE-2.41
- 35.6%Third-down rate41.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.33Points / drive2.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/35 | 162 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 79 | 26.3 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 22/34 | 180 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.01