2021 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

GB -1

Total

48

Model margin

-0.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.136EPA / play+0.018
  • 48.9%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +4.71CPOE+0.82
  • 43.8%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 2.45Points / drive2.13
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:00439Field goal3–0
MINQ1 13:17642Field goal3–3
GBQ1 9:14814Punt3–3
MINQ1 5:08684Touchdown3–9
GBQ1 1:481166Missed field goal3–9
MINQ2 11:15931Touchdown3–16
GBQ2 7:37411Punt3–16
MINQ2 6:0039Punt3–16
GBQ2 4:181084Touchdown10–16
MINQ2 0:3037Punt10–16
GBQ2 0:1000End of half10–16
MINQ3 15:001475Touchdown10–23
GBQ3 8:26885Touchdown17–23
MINQ3 3:35822Punt17–23
GBQ4 14:511294Touchdown24–23
MINQ4 7:491279Touchdown24–31
GBQ4 2:17175Touchdown31–31
MINQ4 2:08563Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3338540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon11534.80
Aaron Rodgers22110.50
Equanimeous St. Brown11111.00
Patrick Taylor4112.80
Jordan Love1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling4101231
Davante Adams781152
AJ Dillon66440
Equanimeous St. Brown22430
Josiah Deguara22371
Randall Cobb12150
Dominique Dafney1180

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3534130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook22863.91
Alexander Mattison351.70
Justin Jefferson133.00
Kirk Cousins2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson8101692
Adam Thielen810821
Tyler Conklin33350
Dalvin Cook34290
K.J. Osborn14190
Dede Westbrook1270
Alexander Mattison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.35