Closing spread
GB -1
Total
48
Model margin
-0.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play+0.018
- 48.9%Success rate41.6%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- +4.71CPOE+0.82
- 43.8%Third-down rate36.6%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 2.45Points / drive2.13
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/33 | 385 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 10 | 123 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 8 | 115 | 2 |
| AJ Dillon | 6 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/35 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 10 | 169 | 2 |
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.35