2021 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Tyrod Taylor

22·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TEN -10.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.134EPA / play+0.025
  • 37.6%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.213EPA / rush-0.054
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.54CPOE+2.33
  • 38.7%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.15
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
TENQ1 15:00840Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:021472Field goal3–0
TENQ1 4:04962Turnover3–0
HOUQ2 15:0030Field goal6–0
TENQ2 13:3538Punt6–0
HOUQ2 12:221049Touchdown12–0
TENQ2 7:43831Turnover on downs12–0
HOUQ2 3:0437Punt12–0
TENQ2 1:441064End of half12–0
HOUQ3 15:001340Punt12–0
HOUQ3 7:3635Touchdown19–0
TENQ3 7:001378Touchdown19–6
HOUQ3 2:243-2Punt19–6
TENQ3 1:20520Turnover on downs19–6
HOUQ4 14:3139Punt19–6
TENQ4 12:57758Turnover19–6
HOUQ4 11:0231Punt19–6
TENQ4 10:02633Touchdown19–13
HOUQ4 7:4739Punt19–13
TENQ4 6:15610Turnover19–13
HOUQ4 3:4231Field goal22–13
TENQ4 3:26420Turnover22–13
HOUQ4 2:073-1Punt22–13
TENQ4 0:171-4End of half22–13

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor14/2410700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead18402.20
Tyrod Taylor6284.72
David Johnson13181.40
Phillip Lindsay1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Conley45370
Brandin Cooks23180
David Johnson34160
Chris Moore11100
Pharaoh Brown24100
Nico Collins1290
Brevin Jordan1370
Danny Amendola0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill35/5232314

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson9404.40
Dontrell Hilliard7355.00
D'Onta Foreman7253.60
Ryan Tannehill231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine781070
A.J. Brown59480
Dontrell Hilliard810470
Chester Rogers46410
Dez Fitzpatrick36351
Anthony Firkser57260
D'Onta Foreman11150
Adrian Peterson2240
Marcus Johnson0100
Tommy Hudson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.79
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.85