Closing spread
TEN -10.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play+0.025
- 37.6%Success rate44.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.054
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.54CPOE+2.33
- 38.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.50Points / drive2.15
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 14/24 | 107 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 18 | 40 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 2 |
| David Johnson | 13 | 18 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 35/52 | 323 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 8 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick | 3 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Hudson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.79
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.85