Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.072
- 41.8%Success rate42.1%
- +0.028EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.180EPA / rush-0.084
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.02CPOE-7.25
- 41.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.58Points / drive1.70
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 27/33 | 273 | 2 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 23 | 89 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 72 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 24/39 | 291 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 8 | 11 | 141 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 6 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.54
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.42