AFC East · 2021
Buffalo Bills
Record
11-6
Seed
#3
Net EPA
+0.189est.
Efficiency
How this team plays
Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.
Offence
Higher is better.
- EPA / play+0.091
- Success rate47.4%
- EPA / dropback+0.164
- EPA / rush-0.048
- Explosive rate8.5%
- CPOE+1.95
- Third-down rate47.6%
- Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- Points / drive2.52
- Turnover rate1.8%
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Defence
Oriented so that further right is always better.
- EPA / play allowed-0.112
- Success rate allowed40.2%
- EPA / dropback allowed-0.114
- EPA / rush allowed-0.107
- Explosive rate allowed7.3%
- Pressure rate (proxy)19.7%
- Sack rate6.4%
- Points / drive allowed1.53
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Offensive EPA / play — league shape+0.091 · 89th %ile
Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)-0.112 · 2th %ile
Form
The shape of the season
Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.
4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.
- Offense
- Defense (prevented)
Betting profile
Against the number
Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.
ATS
9-6-2
+3.2 vs line
Home
4-3-2
Away
5-3
As favorite
7-5-2
As dog
2-1
O/U
8-9
-2.0 vs total
Roster
74 players
48 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.
Quarterbacks3
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Davis Webb | QB | 26 | 6'5" 225 | 4 | California | DEV |
| 10 | Mitchell Trubisky | QB | 27 | 6'2" 215 | 4 | North Carolina | ACT |
| 17 | Josh Allen | QB | 25 | 6'5" 237 | 3 | Wyoming | ACT |
Backs & receivers19
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 34 | 5'11" 180 | 11 | Southern Methodist | ACT |
| 5 | Marquez Stevenson | WR | 23 | 5'10" 180 | R | Houston | INA |
| 11 | Cole Beasley | WR | 32 | 5'8" 174 | 9 | Southern Methodist | ACT |
| 13 | Gabriel Davis | WR | 22 | 6'2" 213 | 1 | Central Florida | ACT |
| 14 | Stefon Diggs | WR | 29 | 6'0" 191 | 6 | Maryland | ACT |
| 15 | Jake Kumerow | WR | 29 | 6'4" 209 | 6 | Wisconsin-Whitewater | ACT |
| 16 | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | 24 | 6'3" 209 | 1 | Oregon State | DEV |
| 19 | Isaiah McKenzie | WR | 26 | 5'8" 173 | 4 | Georgia | ACT |
| 20 | Zack Moss | RB | 25 | 5'9" 215 | 1 | Utah | ACT |
| 22 | Matt Breida | RB | 26 | 5'10" 190 | 4 | Georgia Southern | INA |
| 25 | Taiwan Jones | RB | 33 | 6'0" 195 | 10 | Eastern Washington | ACT |
| 26 | Devin Singletary | RB | 25 | 5'7" 203 | 2 | Florida Atlantic | ACT |
| 28 | Antonio Williams | RB | 25 | 5'11" 210 | 1 | North Carolina | DEV |
| 41 | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 24 | 6'0" 255 | 1 | Toledo | ACT |
| 45 | Christian Wade | RB | 30 | 5'9" 196 | 2 | No College | E14 |
| 85 | Quintin Morris | TE | 22 | 6'2" 251 | R | Bowling Green | DEV |
| 87 | Tanner Gentry | WR | 28 | 6'2" 193 | 4 | Wyoming | DEV |
| 88 | Dawson Knox | TE | 26 | 6'4" 254 | 2 | Mississippi | ACT |
| 89 | Tommy Sweeney | TE | 26 | 6'5" 251 | 2 | Boston College | INA |
Offensive line12
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | Mitch Morse | OL | 29 | 6'6" 305 | 6 | Missouri | ACT |
| 61 | Evin Ksiezarczyk | OL | 24 | 6'6" 310 | 1 | Buffalo | DEV |
| 65 | Ike Boettger | OL | 28 | 6'6" 318 | 3 | Iowa | RES |
| 66 | Jacob Capra | OL | 24 | 6'5" 315 | R | San Diego State | DEV |
| 68 | Bobby Hart | OL | 27 | 6'5" 310 | 6 | Florida State | INA |
| 71 | Ryan Bates | OL | 24 | 6'4" 300 | 2 | Penn State | ACT |
| 72 | Tommy Doyle | OL | 23 | 6'8" 315 | R | Miami, O. | ACT |
| 73 | Dion Dawkins | OL | 27 | 6'5" 320 | 4 | Temple | ACT |
| 74 | Cody Ford | OL | 26 | 6'3" 329 | 2 | Oklahoma | ACT |
| 75 | Daryl Williams | OL | 29 | 6'6" 330 | 6 | Oklahoma | ACT |
| 76 | Jon Feliciano | OL | 29 | 6'4" 323 | 6 | Miami | ACT |
| 79 | Spencer Brown | OL | 23 | 6'8" 321 | R | Northern Iowa | ACT |
Defensive front22
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Andre Smith | LB | 24 | 6'0" 240 | 3 | North Carolina | ACT |
| 42 | Joe Giles-Harris | LB | 24 | 6'2" 234 | 2 | Duke | DEV |
| 44 | Tyler Matakevich | LB | 30 | 6'1" 235 | 5 | Temple | ACT |
| 49 | Tremaine Edmunds | LB | 23 | 6'5" 250 | 3 | Virginia Tech | ACT |
| 50 | Gregory Rousseau | DL | 21 | 6'6" 253 | R | Miami | ACT |
| 51 | Bryan Cox | DL | 27 | 6'3" 270 | 4 | Florida | RES |
| 51 | Eli Ankou | DL | 27 | 6'3" 325 | 4 | UCLA | DEV |
| 53 | Tyrel Dodson | LB | 23 | 6'0" 237 | 2 | Texas A&M | ACT |
| 54 | A.J. Klein | LB | 30 | 6'1" 240 | 8 | Iowa State | ACT |
| 55 | Jerry Hughes | DL | 33 | 6'2" 254 | 11 | Texas Christian | ACT |
| 56 | Mike Love | DL | 27 | 6'3" 255 | 3 | South Florida | DEV |
| 57 | A.J. Epenesa | DL | 24 | 6'6" 280 | 1 | Iowa | ACT |
| 58 | Matt Milano | LB | 27 | 6'0" 223 | 4 | Boston College | ACT |
| 61 | Justin Zimmer | DL | 30 | 6'3" 292 | 5 | Ferris State | RES |
| 90 | Brandin Bryant | DL | 29 | 6'2" 294 | 5 | Florida Atlantic | DEV |
| 91 | Ed Oliver | DL | 25 | 6'1" 287 | 2 | Houston | ACT |
| 93 | Efe Obada | DL | 29 | 6'6" 265 | 6 | No College | ACT |
| 94 | Vernon Butler | DL | 27 | 6'4" 330 | 5 | Louisiana Tech | INA |
| 96 | Carlos Basham | DL | 25 | 6'3" 273 | R | Wake Forest | ACT |
| 97 | Mario Addison | DL | 35 | 6'3" 260 | 10 | Troy | ACT |
| 98 | Star Lotulelei | DL | 33 | 6'2" 318 | 8 | Utah | ACT |
| 99 | Harrison Phillips | DL | 25 | 6'3" 307 | 3 | Stanford | ACT |
Secondary14
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Jordan Poyer | DB | 30 | 6'0" 191 | 8 | Oregon State | ACT |
| 23 | Micah Hyde | DB | 32 | 6'0" 197 | 8 | Iowa | ACT |
| 24 | Taron Johnson | DB | 25 | 5'11" 192 | 3 | Weber State | ACT |
| 27 | Tre'Davious White | DB | 26 | 5'11" 192 | 4 | Louisiana State | RES |
| 29 | Nick McCloud | DB | 23 | 6'1" 190 | R | Notre Dame | INA |
| 30 | Dane Jackson | DB | 26 | 5'11" 185 | 1 | Pittsburgh | ACT |
| 31 | Damar Hamlin | DB | 23 | 6'0" 195 | R | Pittsburgh | ACT |
| 33 | Siran Neal | DB | 27 | 6'0" 205 | 3 | Jacksonville State | ACT |
| 34 | Tim Harris | DB | 26 | 6'1" 197 | 2 | Virginia | DEV |
| 36 | Josh Thomas | DB | 26 | 6'0" 205 | 1 | Appalachian State | INA |
| 37 | Olaijah Griffin | DB | 22 | 6'0" 175 | R | Southern California | DEV |
| 39 | Levi Wallace | DB | 26 | 6'0" 179 | 3 | Alabama | ACT |
| 46 | Jaquan Johnson | DB | 27 | 5'10" 190 | 2 | Miami | ACT |
| 47 | Cameron Lewis | DB | 24 | 5'9" 185 | 2 | Buffalo | ACT |
Specialists4
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tyler Bass | K | 24 | 5'10" 185 | 1 | Georgia Southern | ACT |
| 3 | Matt Haack | P | 27 | 6'0" 205 | 4 | Arizona State | ACT |
| 7 | Jamie Gillan | P | 24 | 6'1" 207 | 2 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | DEV |
| 69 | Reid Ferguson | LS | 27 | 6'2" 235 | 5 | Louisiana State | ACT |
Schedule
19 games
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Spread | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Steelers | L 16-23 | -6.5 | -0.132 |
| 2 | @ Dolphins | W 35-0 | -3.5 | +0.158 |
| 3 | vs Commanders | W 43-21 | -7.5 | +0.271 |
| 4 | vs Texans | W 40-0 | -19 | +0.117 |
| 5 | @ Chiefs | W 38-20 | +2.5 | +0.328 |
| 6 | @ Titans | L 31-34 | -6 | +0.152 |
| 8 | vs Dolphins | W 26-11 | -15 | +0.066 |
| 9 | @ Jaguars | L 6-9 | -14.5 | -0.196 |
| 10 | @ Jets | W 45-17 | -13 | +0.390 |
| 11 | vs Colts | L 15-41 | -7.5 | -0.034 |
| 12 | @ Saints | W 31-6 | -7 | +0.125 |
| 13 | vs Patriots | L 10-14 | -3 | -0.209 |
| 14 | @ Buccaneers | L 27-33 | +3.5 | +0.081 |
| 15 | vs Panthers | W 31-14 | -14 | +0.079 |
| 16 | @ Patriots | W 33-21 | +1 | +0.290 |
| 17 | vs Falcons | W 29-15 | -14 | +0.096 |
| 18 | vs Jets | W 27-10 | -16 | +0.031 |
| WC | vs Patriots | W 47-17 | -4.5 | +0.723 |
| DIV | @ Chiefs | L 36-42 | +2.5 | +0.385 |