Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play-0.061
- 41.4%Success rate42.1%
- -0.077EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.123
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.87CPOE-0.05
- 34.7%Third-down rate34.7%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.62Points / drive1.73
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/39 | 317 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 8 | 123 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 8 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Coulter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/25 | 171 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.86