2021 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Andy Dalton

16·14

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -2

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.087EPA / play-0.061
  • 41.4%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.123
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -2.87CPOE-0.05
  • 34.7%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.73
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:00512Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:42764Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:26732Punt0–7
DETQ1 5:1732Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:01974Field goal3–7
DETQ2 13:241137Punt3–7
CHIQ2 5:21269Touchdown10–7
DETQ2 4:29413Turnover10–7
CHIQ2 2:23416Turnover10–7
DETQ2 1:4744Punt10–7
CHIQ2 1:09629Field goal13–7
DETQ3 15:0036Punt13–7
CHIQ3 12:46942Missed field goal13–7
DETQ3 8:3835Punt13–7
CHIQ3 7:0638Punt13–7
DETQ3 5:07764Touchdown13–14
CHIQ3 1:46832Punt13–14
DETQ4 12:08744Punt13–14
CHIQ4 8:301470Field goal16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/3931711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery17462.70
Andy Dalton6111.80
Khalil Herbert492.30
Darnell Mooney122.00
Jakeem Grant100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney581230
Cole Kmet811650
Damiere Byrd45420
Jimmy Graham23341
David Montgomery33280
Jakeem Grant24250
Marquise Goodwin0100
Jesse James0100
Isaiah Coulter0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/2517120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams15654.30
Godwin Igwebuike11111.00
D'Andre Swift300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds35701
T.J. Hockenson33351
Amon-Ra St. Brown44230
Jamaal Williams55180
Kalif Raymond34160
D'Andre Swift3390
Godwin Igwebuike0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.86