2021 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

10·16

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

47

Model margin

+0.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.009
  • 43.7%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.041
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.046
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -2.26CPOE+0.31
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.93
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:00757Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 11:41611Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:561012Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:02821Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 0:24610Punt0–3
BALQ2 12:341664Field goal0–6
CLEQ2 3:53240Turnover0–6
BALQ2 3:04213Turnover0–6
CLEQ2 2:29625Field goal3–6
BALQ2 1:0210Turnover3–6
CLEQ2 0:562-17Turnover3–6
BALQ2 0:45521Turnover3–6
CLEQ2 0:2134Punt3–6
BALQ2 0:0100End of half3–6
BALQ3 15:001070Touchdown3–13
CLEQ3 9:48421Punt3–13
BALQ3 7:561025Punt3–13
CLEQ3 3:09672Touchdown10–13
BALQ3 0:39522Turnover10–13
CLEQ4 12:54726Punt10–13
BALQ4 8:2933Punt10–13
CLEQ4 7:2535Punt10–13
BALQ4 6:281155Field goal10–16
CLEQ4 1:1047Turnover on downs10–16
BALQ4 0:4800End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/3724710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt7202.90
Nick Chubb8162.00
Baker Mayfield242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry6101110
Harrison Bryant33500
David Njoku35351
Nick Chubb24230
Ja'Marcus Bradley22180
Donovan Peoples-Jones25100
Austin Hooper0300
Kareem Hunt0100
Demetric Felton0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson20/3216514

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson17684.00
Devonta Freeman16523.30
Latavius Murray8141.80
Devin Duvernay11313.00
Ty'Son Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews410651
Marquise Brown810510
Rashod Bateman44310
Devonta Freeman1180
Sammy Watkins1180
Devin Duvernay1220
Patrick Ricard1200
Ty'Son Williams0100
Tylan Wallace0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.04