Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.009
- 43.7%Success rate46.3%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.041
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.046
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- -2.26CPOE+0.31
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.5%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 1.81Points / drive1.93
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/37 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Ja'Marcus Bradley | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/32 | 165 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 8 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04