Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
44
Model margin
+2.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.051
- 46.3%Success rate40.2%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.31CPOE-2.66
- 36.5%Third-down rate39.0%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 23/37 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Nate McCrary | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/31 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 11 | 105 | 2 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59