2021 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

19·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

44

Model margin

+2.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.051
  • 46.3%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +0.31CPOE-2.66
  • 36.5%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:001275Turnover0–0
PITQ1 8:3039Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:553-1Punt0–0
PITQ1 5:1738Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:041694Touchdown7–0
PITQ2 8:37424Punt7–0
BALQ2 6:16715Punt7–0
PITQ2 1:48852Field goal7–3
BALQ2 0:2748End of half7–3
PITQ3 15:00611Punt7–3
BALQ3 12:44946Field goal10–3
PITQ3 7:24831Punt10–3
BALQ3 3:36619Punt10–3
PITQ3 0:39478Touchdown10–9
BALQ4 14:01510Field goal13–9
PITQ4 11:51950Field goal13–12
BALQ4 7:183-5Punt13–12
PITQ4 6:211259Touchdown13–20
BALQ4 1:48865Touchdown19–20
PITQ4 0:1200End of half19–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson23/3725311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson8556.90
Devonta Freeman14523.71
Latavius Murray210.50
Nate McCrary1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown57550
Mark Andrews49500
Devonta Freeman58450
Sammy Watkins46391
Latavius Murray22340
Devin Duvernay23210
Patrick Ricard1190
Rashod Bateman0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3123620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris21713.40
Benny Snell2136.50
Chase Claypool122.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson8111052
Chase Claypool23520
Najee Harris55360
Pat Freiermuth34260
Zach Gentry22100
Ray-Ray McCloud1470
James Washington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.59