2021 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

31·0

Texans

Houston

QB Tyrod Taylor

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -10

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.134
  • 44.6%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback-0.086
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.213
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -2.41CPOE-1.54
  • 41.9%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 2.35Points / drive1.50
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
INDQ1 14:55629Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 11:26426Turnover7–0
INDQ1 9:31840Missed field goal7–0
HOUQ1 4:2534Punt7–0
INDQ1 3:28736Punt7–0
HOUQ2 14:0336Punt7–0
INDQ2 12:3333Punt7–0
HOUQ2 11:271013Punt7–0
INDQ2 6:591154Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 0:434-1Punt14–0
INDQ2 0:1300End of half14–0
INDQ3 15:00975Touchdown21–0
HOUQ3 9:47418Punt21–0
INDQ3 7:58531Punt21–0
HOUQ3 3:50942Turnover on downs21–0
INDQ4 14:16860Field goal24–0
HOUQ4 9:0830Punt24–0
INDQ4 8:46418Turnover24–0
HOUQ4 6:2949Turnover on downs24–0
INDQ4 5:29945Touchdown31–0
HOUQ4 1:56724Turnover on downs31–0
INDQ4 0:4100End of half31–0

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz16/2215810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor321434.52
Michael Pittman23316.50
Nyheim Hines3248.00
Deon Jackson6193.21
Zach Pascal11212.00
Carson Wentz382.70
Sam Ehlinger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman68770
Nyheim Hines34320
T.Y. Hilton22220
Jack Doyle11130
Zach Pascal1360
Kylen Granson1260
Ashton Dulin1121
Mo Alie-Cox1100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills6/144900
Tyrod Taylor5/134501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead8303.80
Brandin Cooks11616.00
Tyrod Taylor3155.00
Davis Mills2115.50
Royce Freeman3103.30
Jaylen Samuels221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks36380
Pharaoh Brown45230
Rex Burkhead12150
Royce Freeman11110
Brevin Jordan2470
Chris Conley0400
Jaylen Samuels0100
Davion Davis0200
Nico Collins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.64