Closing spread
IND -10
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.134
- 44.6%Success rate37.6%
- +0.055EPA / dropback-0.086
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.213
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.1%
- -2.41CPOE-1.54
- 41.9%Third-down rate38.7%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.35Points / drive1.50
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/22 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 32 | 143 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 6/14 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5/13 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Davion Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64