Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play-0.061
- 41.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.102EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.123
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.82CPOE-0.05
- 36.6%Third-down rate34.7%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 2.13Points / drive1.73
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/40 | 340 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 11 | 14 | 182 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 7 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/41 | 296 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 8 | 49 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.16