2021 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

27·29

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.018EPA / play-0.061
  • 41.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.123
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.82CPOE-0.05
  • 36.6%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.73
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
MINQ1 15:00632Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:01621Turnover on downs0–0
MINQ1 9:40418Field goal3–0
DETQ1 6:493-5Punt3–0
MINQ1 5:10953Field goal6–0
DETQ1 0:59555Touchdown6–7
MINQ2 13:50514Turnover6–7
DETQ2 11:08356Touchdown6–14
MINQ2 9:45416Punt6–14
DETQ2 7:061272Field goal6–17
MINQ2 1:33730Turnover on downs6–17
DETQ2 0:32437Field goal6–20
MINQ2 0:0600End of half6–20
DETQ3 15:0032Punt6–20
MINQ3 14:131170Field goal9–20
DETQ3 9:263-10Punt9–20
MINQ3 7:49567Touchdown15–20
DETQ3 6:13827Field goal15–23
MINQ3 1:561080Touchdown21–23
DETQ4 11:57737Turnover21–23
MINQ4 8:34528Punt21–23
DETQ4 5:3240Turnover21–23
MINQ4 4:01619Touchdown27–23
DETQ4 1:501280Touchdown27–29

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/4034020
Justin Jefferson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison22904.11
Kirk Cousins263.00
Justin Jefferson144.00
Kene Nwangwu200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson11141821
Tyler Conklin79560
K.J. Osborn47471
Alexander Mattison33340
Kene Nwangwu2340
Adam Thielen1200
Dede Westbrook12-20

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/4129631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams17714.20
Jermar Jefferson5183.60
Godwin Igwebuike284.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown122.00
Jared Goff210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown1012861
Josh Reynolds47690
T.J. Hockenson48491
Kalif Raymond22330
Brock Wright23281
Godwin Igwebuike12130
Jamaal Williams1190
KhaDarel Hodge1190
Jermar Jefferson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.16