Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.014
- 46.3%Success rate43.7%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.015
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- +0.31CPOE-2.26
- 36.5%Third-down rate39.1%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.93Points / drive1.81
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 27/38 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4/4 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 11 | 11 | 115 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 7 | 8 | 103 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/32 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 10 | 41 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.93