2021 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

22·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

44

Model margin

+3.9est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.014
  • 46.3%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.046EPA / rush+0.015
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +0.31CPOE-2.26
  • 36.5%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.81
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:31417Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:20919Field goal0–3
BALQ1 7:3035Punt0–3
CLEQ1 5:36866Touchdown0–10
BALQ1 0:38410Punt0–10
CLEQ2 14:201175Touchdown0–17
BALQ2 8:1533Punt0–17
CLEQ2 6:13212Turnover0–17
BALQ2 5:2437Field goal3–17
CLEQ2 3:30416Punt3–17
BALQ2 1:4346Opp touchdown3–24
BALQ2 0:49653Field goal6–24
CLEQ2 0:0200End of half6–24
BALQ3 15:00762Turnover6–24
CLEQ3 12:031036Punt6–24
BALQ3 6:451161Field goal9–24
CLEQ3 2:051052Missed field goal9–24
BALQ4 11:30769Touchdown15–24
CLEQ4 8:5636Punt15–24
BALQ4 7:2030Punt15–24
CLEQ4 6:5133Punt15–24
BALQ4 5:261390Touchdown22–24
CLEQ4 1:1700Turnover on downs22–24
BALQ4 1:1546Turnover on downs22–24
CLEQ4 0:5600End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley27/3827010
Lamar Jackson4/41700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman13644.90
Tyler Huntley6457.50
Lamar Jackson252.50
Devin Duvernay133.00
Latavius Murray111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews11111151
Rashod Bateman781030
Marquise Brown58410
Devin Duvernay25140
Devonta Freeman5580
Josh Oliver1160
Sammy Watkins0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/3219021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb17593.50
D'Ernest Johnson4225.50
Baker Mayfield6142.30
Kareem Hunt252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones57900
Jarvis Landry510411
Austin Hooper56301
Kareem Hunt22130
D'Ernest Johnson1170
Nick Chubb3460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.93