2021 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

30·45

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -11.5

Total

43

Model margin

+5.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.087EPA / play+0.136
  • 41.4%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.003
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.87CPOE+4.71
  • 34.7%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.45
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
CHIQ1 15:00735Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:2831Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:081039Field goal3–0
GBQ1 4:21741Punt3–0
CHIQ2 14:50774Touchdown10–0
GBQ2 11:091175Touchdown10–7
CHIQ2 6:0237Opp touchdown10–14
CHIQ2 4:59360Touchdown17–14
GBQ2 3:21526Opp touchdown24–14
GBQ2 1:32475Touchdown24–21
CHIQ2 0:44532Field goal27–21
GBQ3 15:00975Touchdown27–28
CHIQ3 9:242-1Turnover27–34
GBQ3 8:32123Touchdown27–35
CHIQ3 8:2434Punt27–35
GBQ3 6:37748Field goal27–38
CHIQ3 2:5245Punt27–38
GBQ3 1:3235Punt27–38
CHIQ4 15:0039Punt27–38
GBQ4 13:111371Touchdown27–45
CHIQ4 4:331064Field goal30–45
GBQ4 1:2200Turnover30–45
CHIQ4 1:21519Turnover30–45
GBQ4 0:4600End of half30–45

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields18/3322422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields9748.20
David Montgomery10424.20
Damien Williams2136.50
Jakeem Grant155.00
Khalil Herbert133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damiere Byrd22761
Jakeem Grant13461
David Montgomery67390
Darnell Mooney15190
Cole Kmet35170
Allen Robinson26140
Jimmy Graham2390
Damien Williams1140

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers29/3734140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon15714.70
Aaron Jones5357.01
Allen Lazard11414.00
Aaron Rodgers100.00
Kurt Benkert2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10131212
Allen Lazard67751
Marcedes Lewis44510
Josiah Deguara33440
Aaron Jones33301
Marquez Valdes-Scantling35200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.64