Closing spread
GB -11.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play+0.136
- 41.4%Success rate48.9%
- -0.077EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.003
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.87CPOE+4.71
- 34.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.62Points / drive2.45
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 18/33 | 224 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 9 | 74 | 8.2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damiere Byrd | 2 | 2 | 76 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 29/37 | 341 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Benkert | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 13 | 121 | 2 |
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.64