2021 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

27·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

-2.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.036
  • 46.8%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.062
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.99CPOE-0.08
  • 43.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 2.44Points / drive1.78
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:001154Field goal3–0
WASQ1 9:37416Punt3–0
DALQ1 8:03416Turnover3–0
WASQ1 6:1330Turnover3–0
DALQ1 5:26741Touchdown11–0
WASQ1 3:427-5Opp touchdown18–0
WASQ1 0:2944Punt18–0
DALQ2 13:1548Punt18–0
WASQ2 11:1734Punt18–0
DALQ2 10:211132Field goal21–0
WASQ2 4:58711Punt21–0
DALQ2 2:141263Field goal24–0
WASQ2 0:1500End of half24–0
WASQ3 15:00617Punt24–0
DALQ3 12:38948Punt24–0
WASQ3 9:17690Touchdown24–8
DALQ3 6:57416Punt24–8
WASQ3 4:0525Turnover24–8
DALQ3 3:12415Field goal27–8
WASQ3 1:3545Punt27–8
DALQ4 14:1436Punt27–8
WASQ4 12:563-2Punt27–8
DALQ4 11:5945Punt27–8
WASQ4 9:241378Touchdown27–14
DALQ4 5:0924Opp touchdown27–20
DALQ4 4:1337Punt27–20
WASQ4 3:0432Turnover27–20
DALQ4 2:24311End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3921112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12453.80
Corey Clement13443.40
Dak Prescott7152.10
CeeDee Lamb2157.50
JaQuan Hardy133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb710610
Michael Gallup59600
Amari Cooper57511
Cedrick Wilson Jr.22180
Ezekiel Elliott16150
Dalton Schultz1340
Corey Clement1220

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke11/2512211
Kyle Allen4/95300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson10363.60
Jaret Patterson4297.30
Jonathan Williams4164.01
Kyle Allen2115.50
Taylor Heinicke382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cam Sims34691
Adam Humphries47340
Jonathan Williams11190
John Bates12190
DeAndre Carter26120
Jaret Patterson1190
Ricky Seals-Jones1480
Antonio Gibson2250
Curtis Samuel0200
Terry McLaurin0300
Dyami Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.50