2021 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 17mph
Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
-2.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.036
- 46.8%Success rate44.8%
- +0.168EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.99CPOE-0.08
- 43.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 2.44Points / drive1.78
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/39 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| JaQuan Hardy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 11/25 | 122 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 4/9 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Sims | 3 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.50