2021 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

0·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -8.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.025
  • 44.0%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.054
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.53CPOE+2.33
  • 35.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.15
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:001059Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:0364Punt0–7
TENQ1 5:42842Missed field goal0–7
JAXQ1 0:37729Punt0–7
TENQ2 11:141457Field goal0–10
JAXQ2 3:10620Punt0–10
TENQ2 0:5854Punt0–10
JAXQ2 0:02131End of half0–10
JAXQ3 15:00520Turnover0–10
TENQ3 12:5438Punt0–10
JAXQ3 10:47616Punt0–10
TENQ3 8:011154Touchdown0–17
JAXQ3 2:51759Turnover0–17
TENQ3 0:2958Punt0–17
JAXQ4 11:5937Turnover0–17
TENQ4 10:5032Punt0–17
JAXQ4 9:127-2Punt0–17
TENQ4 6:55519Punt0–17
JAXQ4 4:2433Turnover0–17
TENQ4 3:32413Field goal0–20
JAXQ4 2:2045Turnover on downs0–20
TENQ4 1:4700End of half0–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/4022104

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson640.70
Carlos Hyde122.00
Trevor Lawrence122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones67700
Laquon Treadwell46680
Laviska Shenault Jr.47340
James O'Shaughnessy46210
Tavon Austin35170
Carlos Hyde1260
Dare Ogunbowale2350
Jaydon Mickens0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3119100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman13473.61
Ryan Tannehill4297.31
Jeremy McNichols8162.00
Dontrell Hilliard6132.20
Logan Woodside3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Geoff Swaim34450
Anthony Firkser45340
Julio Jones46330
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine33310
D'Onta Foreman22150
Chester Rogers11130
Racey McMath1290
Cody Hollister1160
MyCole Pruitt1350
Jeremy McNichols0100
Dontrell Hilliard0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.68