Closing spread
TEN -8.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.025
- 44.0%Success rate44.7%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.53CPOE+2.33
- 35.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.33Points / drive2.15
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/40 | 221 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/31 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Logan Woodside | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cody Hollister | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.68