Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
51
Model margin
+0.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.079
- 46.6%Success rate46.8%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.037
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.40CPOE+4.19
- 42.6%Third-down rate45.2%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.32Points / drive2.37
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/30 | 287 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 13 | 15 | 123 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 58 | 1 |
| Kendall Blanton | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 32/49 | 383 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 |
| James Conner | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| James Conner | 9 | 9 | 94 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 13 | 54 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.87