2021 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

30·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

51

Model margin

+0.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.079
  • 46.6%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.037
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -0.40CPOE+4.19
  • 42.6%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.37
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00945Field goal0–3
LAQ1 10:5834Punt0–3
ARIQ1 9:561259Turnover0–3
LAQ1 3:501068Touchdown7–3
ARIQ2 12:534-6Punt7–3
LAQ2 10:17844Field goal10–3
ARIQ2 7:23975Touchdown10–10
LAQ2 3:18653Field goal13–10
ARIQ2 0:35545Field goal13–13
LAQ3 15:00360Touchdown20–13
ARIQ3 13:3620Turnover20–13
LAQ3 13:04815Touchdown27–13
ARIQ3 9:451161Turnover on downs27–13
LAQ3 4:39417Punt27–13
ARIQ3 1:45783Touchdown27–20
LAQ4 13:381185Field goal30–20
ARIQ4 7:20638Turnover on downs30–20
LAQ4 5:17510Punt30–20
ARIQ4 2:441056Field goal30–23
LAQ4 0:3700End of half30–23
ARIQ4 0:343-9End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3028730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel20794.00
Van Jefferson11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp13151231
Odell Beckham Jr.67771
Van Jefferson23581
Kendall Blanton23290
Sony Michel0100
Ben Skowronek0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray32/4938302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray7618.70
James Conner13312.42
Rondale Moore2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green7101020
James Conner99940
Christian Kirk36860
DeAndre Hopkins513540
Zach Ertz57420
Rondale Moore3450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.87