2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

21·6

Giants

New York

QB Mike Glennon

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DAL -11.5

Total

43

Model margin

-9.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.084EPA / play-0.141
  • 46.8%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback-0.146
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.133
  • 9.4%Explosive rate5.7%
  • +1.99CPOE-4.62
  • 43.7%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.44Points / drive1.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:001145Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:42620Turnover0–0
DALQ1 6:40213Touchdown6–0
NYGQ1 6:311058Field goal6–3
DALQ1 0:37958Field goal9–3
NYGQ2 10:30418Punt9–3
DALQ2 8:161568Field goal12–3
NYGQ2 1:39316Turnover12–3
DALQ2 0:41537Field goal15–3
NYGQ3 15:00846Field goal15–6
DALQ3 12:05931Punt15–6
NYGQ3 7:58721Turnover on downs15–6
DALQ3 4:25529Touchdown21–6
NYGQ3 1:57519Turnover21–6
DALQ4 14:53417Punt21–6
NYGQ4 11:55525Punt21–6
DALQ4 8:3210Turnover21–6
NYGQ4 8:2320Turnover21–6
DALQ4 8:12831Punt21–6
NYGQ4 3:411379Turnover on downs21–6
DALQ4 1:1800End of half21–6

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott28/3721710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12746.20
Ezekiel Elliott16523.31
Dak Prescott2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz88671
CeeDee Lamb69500
Michael Gallup35320
Jeremy Sprinkle22210
Ezekiel Elliott34200
Tony Pollard33130
Amari Cooper2580
Malik Turner1160

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon13/249903
Jake Fromm6/128200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker8749.30
Saquon Barkley15503.30
Mike Glennon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay38530
Evan Engram45330
Saquon Barkley48240
Darius Slayton23230
Collin Johnson11160
Sterling Shepard26150
Kyle Rudolph1190
Devontae Booker2280
Pharoh Cooper0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.52.5%2.9%3.5%3.5%4.9%3.1%6.8%5.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

25.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-9.35