Closing spread
DAL -11.5
Total
43
Model margin
-9.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.141
- 46.8%Success rate40.2%
- +0.168EPA / dropback-0.146
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.4%Explosive rate5.7%
- +1.99CPOE-4.62
- 43.7%Third-down rate35.9%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.44Points / drive1.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/37 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 8 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 13/24 | 99 | 0 | 3 |
| Jake Fromm | 6/12 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
25.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-5.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-9.35