2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

30·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -6

Total

40

Model margin

+1.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.134EPA / play-0.079
  • 37.6%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.213EPA / rush-0.113
  • 6.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -1.54CPOE-4.53
  • 38.7%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.33
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:001575Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 6:39864Field goal13–3
HOUQ1 1:4200Touchdown14–3
JAXQ1 1:261175Touchdown14–10
HOUQ2 12:09411Punt14–10
JAXQ2 9:253-7Punt14–10
HOUQ2 7:49725Field goal17–10
JAXQ2 3:06832Turnover on downs17–10
HOUQ2 0:21429Field goal20–10
JAXQ3 15:003-4Punt20–10
HOUQ3 12:52640Field goal23–10
JAXQ3 10:391360Field goal23–13
HOUQ3 4:4734Punt23–13
JAXQ3 3:3338Punt23–13
HOUQ3 1:56613Turnover23–13
JAXQ4 13:2235Field goal23–16
HOUQ4 11:1836Punt23–16
JAXQ4 9:2932Punt23–16
HOUQ4 8:31523Punt23–16
JAXQ4 6:2634Punt23–16
HOUQ4 5:09655Touchdown30–16
JAXQ4 2:221157End of half30–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills19/3020921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead16412.60
David Johnson6244.00
Royce Freeman382.70
Davis Mills122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks7101022
Phillip Dorsett23430
Jordan Akins23240
Nico Collins24140
Chris Conley24120
Rex Burkhead1360
Pharaoh Brown2250
David Johnson1130

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence22/3821000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson18754.21
Trevor Lawrence5214.20
Laviska Shenault Jr.11010.00
Dare Ogunbowale111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James O'Shaughnessy44600
Laquon Treadwell69570
Laviska Shenault Jr.47390
Marvin Jones24140
James Robinson36130
Tavon Austin13110
Chris Manhertz11110
Dare Ogunbowale1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.78