Closing spread
JAX -6
Total
40
Model margin
+1.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play-0.079
- 37.6%Success rate44.0%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.113
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- -1.54CPOE-4.53
- 38.7%Third-down rate35.6%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.50Points / drive1.33
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 19/30 | 209 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 10 | 102 | 2 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 22/38 | 210 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78