Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
48
Model margin
+0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play-0.087
- 41.6%Success rate41.4%
- +0.102EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.82CPOE-2.87
- 36.6%Third-down rate34.7%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.13Points / drive1.62
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 12/24 | 87 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 28 | 89 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 26/39 | 285 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dazz Newsome | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.14