2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

17·9

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

48

Model margin

+0.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.018EPA / play-0.087
  • 41.6%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback-0.077
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.82CPOE-2.87
  • 36.6%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.62
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:00620Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:26413Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:40854Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 5:03528Turnover7–0
MINQ1 2:3787Field goal10–0
CHIQ2 13:28953Turnover10–0
MINQ2 9:0433Punt10–0
CHIQ2 7:281153Field goal10–3
MINQ2 1:3332Turnover10–3
CHIQ2 0:4638Missed field goal10–3
MINQ2 0:2837Turnover on downs10–3
CHIQ3 15:0059Punt10–3
MINQ3 11:321257Touchdown17–3
CHIQ3 5:51313Punt17–3
MINQ3 4:0239Punt17–3
CHIQ3 2:2547Turnover on downs17–3
MINQ3 0:5431Punt17–3
MINQ4 14:4241Punt17–3
CHIQ4 12:211159Turnover on downs17–3
MINQ4 8:3048Punt17–3
CHIQ4 6:10842Turnover on downs17–3
MINQ4 4:15624Punt17–3
CHIQ4 1:52885Touchdown17–9

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins12/248721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook28893.20
Kene Nwangwu33311.00
Kirk Cousins2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson410471
K.J. Osborn33210
Tyler Conklin1370
Ihmir Smith-Marsette1271
Dalvin Cook2320

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields26/3928510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery18603.30
Justin Fields7355.00
Jakeem Grant2178.50
Darnell Mooney133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet69710
Darnell Mooney57630
Damiere Byrd56620
Khalil Herbert34340
David Montgomery56230
Jesper Horsted11191
Jimmy Graham12130
Dazz Newsome0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.14