Closing spread
MIA -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+6.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.046
- 42.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.180
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.7%
- -7.25CPOE-0.02
- 37.8%Third-down rate41.1%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.70Points / drive1.58
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 13/23 | 170 | 0 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 16/27 | 196 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Myles Gaskin | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Isaiah Ford | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.0%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.85