2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

24·31

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

MIA -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

+6.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.046
  • 42.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.180
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -7.25CPOE-0.02
  • 37.8%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.58
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:061083Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 7:0210Turnover7–0
NYJQ1 6:49516Field goal10–0
MIAQ1 4:3030Punt10–0
NYJQ1 3:3831Punt10–0
MIAQ1 2:43868Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 13:42954Touchdown17–7
MIAQ2 9:291373Field goal17–10
NYJQ2 1:59620Punt17–10
MIAQ2 0:2100End of half17–10
NYJQ3 15:0033Punt17–10
MIAQ3 13:20878Touchdown17–17
NYJQ3 9:4464Punt17–17
MIAQ3 5:581351Touchdown17–24
NYJQ4 14:23337Turnover17–24
MIAQ4 12:56519Turnover17–24
NYJQ4 10:233-12Punt17–24
MIAQ4 8:4836Opp touchdown24–24
MIAQ4 7:45975Touchdown24–31
NYJQ4 3:3733Punt24–31
MIAQ4 2:0235Punt24–31
NYJQ4 1:36519Turnover on downs24–31
MIAQ4 1:1000End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson13/2317000
Keelan Cole0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman8506.30
Michael Carter8182.30
Austin Walter2126.00
Zach Wilson4123.01
Braxton Berrios2105.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder58400
Ryan Griffin22390
Tyler Kroft22350
Braxton Berrios11260
Trevon Wesco11190
Keelan Cole1290
Michael Carter1220
Denzel Mims0300
Zach Wilson0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa16/2719622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duke Johnson221074.92
Myles Gaskin10545.40
Tua Tagovailoa7192.70
Jacoby Brissett122.00
Albert Wilson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker48681
Isaiah Ford33510
Mike Gesicki58430
Duke Johnson11200
Albert Wilson1290
Durham Smythe1140
Mack Hollins0100
Hunter Long0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.0%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.85