2021 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.061
- 44.8%Success rate46.4%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.062EPA / rush+0.025
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.08CPOE+0.39
- 38.3%Third-down rate45.5%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.78Points / drive2.39
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Gilbert | 20/31 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 15 | 26 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jaret Patterson | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 20/26 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 18 | 131 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 9 | 135 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.72
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.99