2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Garrett Gilbert

17·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -10

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.061
  • 44.8%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.091
  • -0.062EPA / rush+0.025
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -0.08CPOE+0.39
  • 38.3%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.39
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:00426Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:4039Turnover0–0
WASQ1 11:29726Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 8:15745Turnover7–0
WASQ1 4:25449Field goal10–0
PHIQ1 2:47850Punt10–0
WASQ2 13:1538Punt10–0
PHIQ2 11:30775Field goal10–3
WASQ2 8:0738Punt10–3
PHIQ2 6:191182Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 1:29512End of half10–10
PHIQ3 15:00675Touchdown10–17
WASQ3 12:263-1Punt10–17
PHIQ3 11:31528Punt10–17
WASQ3 8:3559Punt10–17
PHIQ3 6:11944Field goal10–20
WASQ3 0:18861Touchdown17–20
PHIQ4 11:44880Touchdown17–27
WASQ4 7:461226Turnover on downs17–27
PHIQ4 2:29731Turnover on downs17–27
WASQ4 0:19113End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Garrett Gilbert20/3119400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson15261.71
Jaret Patterson4205.01
DeAndre Carter11212.00
Jonathan Williams155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin24510
Antonio Gibson67390
Ricky Seals-Jones47290
John Bates11290
Adam Humphries36230
Cam Sims11130
DeAndre Carter23120
Dax Milne11-20

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts20/2629611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders181317.30
Jordan Howard15694.60
Jalen Hurts8384.82

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert791350
Jalen Reagor33570
DeVonta Smith35400
Greg Ward23281
Miles Sanders22150
Quez Watkins22140
Jack Stoll1170
Kenny Gainwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.72
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.99