2021 · Week 16 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -10.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.084
- 44.8%Success rate46.8%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.08CPOE+1.99
- 38.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.78Points / drive2.44
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 7/22 | 121 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Allen | 8/10 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaret Patterson | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/39 | 330 | 4 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/3 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Malik Turner | 3 | 3 | 82 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.67