2021 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

14·56

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -10.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.8%Success rate46.8%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -0.08CPOE+1.99
  • 38.3%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.44
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:3310Turnover0–0
DALQ1 11:27971Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 7:42520Punt0–7
DALQ1 6:08874Touchdown0–14
WASQ1 3:0833Opp touchdown0–21
WASQ1 2:17670Touchdown7–21
DALQ2 14:45875Touchdown7–28
WASQ2 10:34614Punt7–28
DALQ2 6:29980Touchdown7–35
WASQ2 2:31422Punt7–35
DALQ2 1:421276Touchdown7–42
WASQ2 0:0500End of half7–42
WASQ3 15:0030Punt7–42
DALQ3 13:513-6Punt7–42
WASQ3 11:5434Punt7–42
DALQ3 10:13617Punt7–42
WASQ3 8:013-5Opp touchdown7–49
WASQ3 6:06849Turnover on downs7–49
DALQ3 2:15579Touchdown7–56
WASQ4 14:16520Punt7–56
DALQ4 11:2739Punt7–56
WASQ4 9:481261Touchdown14–56
DALQ4 2:46311End of half14–56

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke7/2212112
Kyle Allen8/106710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaret Patterson9333.70
Antonio Gibson6294.80
DeAndre Carter11515.00
Jonathan Williams393.00
Taylor Heinicke1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dyami Brown22530
John Bates23451
Terry McLaurin36400
Antonio Gibson24291
Dax Milne11140
DeAndre Carter1250
Adam Humphries2640
Jonathan Williams1220
Cam Sims0300
Ricky Seals-Jones11-40

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott28/3933040
Cooper Rush2/37010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott9374.11
Tony Pollard8344.30
Dak Prescott4215.30
Corey Clement4184.50
Cooper Rush200.00
CeeDee Lamb1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper711851
Dalton Schultz89821
Malik Turner33821
CeeDee Lamb45660
Michael Gallup25530
Tony Pollard23160
Cedrick Wilson Jr.23100
Ezekiel Elliott1151

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.67