2021 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

14·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.051
  • 43.7%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback-0.037
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.078
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -2.26CPOE-2.66
  • 39.1%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.65
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:14518Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:43515Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:57540Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 5:281026Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 0:433-6Punt0–0
PITQ2 14:531146Touchdown0–7
CLEQ2 10:3931Punt0–7
PITQ2 9:4637Punt0–7
CLEQ2 7:0910Turnover0–7
PITQ2 7:031039Field goal0–10
CLEQ2 3:02938Punt0–10
PITQ2 0:34615Turnover0–10
CLEQ3 15:0036Punt0–10
PITQ3 12:361161Field goal0–13
CLEQ3 8:20517Punt0–13
PITQ3 5:063-1Punt0–13
CLEQ3 2:58448Touchdown7–13
PITQ3 0:5631Punt7–13
CLEQ3 0:02616Punt7–13
PITQ4 13:36725Field goal7–16
CLEQ4 9:464-3Punt7–16
PITQ4 7:2337Field goal7–19
CLEQ4 5:481950Touchdown14–19
PITQ4 1:10345Touchdown14–26
CLEQ4 0:5147Turnover14–26
PITQ4 0:1000End of half14–26

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield16/3818522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb12584.80
Baker Mayfield2168.00
D'Ernest Johnson5132.60
Jarvis Landry166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones35760
Jarvis Landry410430
Austin Hooper25280
David Njoku44281
Rashard Higgins1580
D'Ernest Johnson1310
Harrison Bryant1111
Nick Chubb0100
Anthony Schwartz0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/4612311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris281886.71
Benny Snell122.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray-Ray McCloud410350
Diontae Johnson815311
Pat Freiermuth56220
Najee Harris33180
Chase Claypool39170
James Washington0100
Zach Gentry1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.85