Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.051
- 43.7%Success rate40.2%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.037
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.078
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.1%
- -2.26CPOE-2.66
- 39.1%Third-down rate39.0%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.81Points / drive1.65
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/38 | 185 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/46 | 123 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 28 | 188 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 15 | 31 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.85