Closing spread
GB -13
Total
42
Model margin
+7.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.136
- 41.6%Success rate48.9%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.003
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.82CPOE+4.71
- 36.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.13Points / drive2.45
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Mannion | 22/36 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
| Kellen Mond | 2/3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Mannion | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 29/38 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2/4 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 76 | 9.5 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Patrick Taylor | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 11 | 14 | 136 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Dominique Dafney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.13