2021 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sean Mannion

10·37

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 11°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -13

Total

42

Model margin

+7.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.136
  • 41.6%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.003
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.82CPOE+4.71
  • 36.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.45
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:00858Field goal0–3
MINQ1 11:48624Turnover on downs0–3
GBQ1 9:06742Turnover on downs0–3
MINQ1 4:3537Punt0–3
GBQ1 2:5038Punt0–3
MINQ1 0:3536Punt0–3
GBQ2 13:29761Field goal0–6
MINQ2 9:113-4Punt0–6
GBQ2 7:32666Touchdown0–13
MINQ2 4:113-5Punt0–13
GBQ2 2:08664Touchdown0–20
MINQ2 1:05842Field goal3–20
MINQ3 15:0032Punt3–20
GBQ3 13:19834Touchdown3–27
MINQ3 9:28626Turnover on downs3–27
GBQ3 7:10732Field goal3–30
MINQ3 3:22865Touchdown10–30
GBQ4 15:001170Touchdown10–37
MINQ4 8:4135Punt10–37
GBQ4 7:181147Punt10–37
MINQ4 1:49838Turnover on downs10–37
GBQ4 0:2600End of half10–37

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sean Mannion22/3618910
Kellen Mond2/3500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sean Mannion2147.00
Dalvin Cook9131.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson611580
K.J. Osborn35501
Tyler Conklin59470
Alexander Mattison45130
Dede Westbrook1140
Dalvin Cook3300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers29/3828820
Jordan Love2/41900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones8769.50
AJ Dillon14634.52
Patrick Taylor6183.00
Jordan Love294.50
Aaron Rodgers284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams11141361
Allen Lazard66721
Aaron Jones56300
AJ Dillon23200
Equanimeous St. Brown12140
Juwann Winfree12120
Josiah Deguara23110
Tyler Davis2290
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1330
Dominique Dafney0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.7%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.29
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.13