2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Andy Dalton

17·31

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.087EPA / play+0.018
  • 41.4%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.87CPOE+0.82
  • 34.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.13
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:00639Field goal3–0
MINQ1 12:0933Punt3–0
CHIQ1 10:1083Turnover on downs3–0
MINQ1 5:5999Punt3–0
CHIQ1 1:111170Turnover on downs3–0
MINQ2 10:3333Punt3–0
CHIQ2 8:58736Field goal6–0
MINQ2 4:5537Punt6–0
CHIQ2 3:10962Touchdown14–0
MINQ2 0:31465Field goal14–3
MINQ3 15:00675Touchdown14–10
CHIQ3 12:241142Turnover on downs14–10
MINQ3 7:4830Punt14–10
CHIQ3 5:47834Field goal17–10
MINQ3 1:37675Touchdown17–17
CHIQ4 13:35519Punt17–17
MINQ4 10:53687Touchdown17–24
CHIQ4 8:04724Opp touchdown17–31
CHIQ4 4:54211Turnover17–31
MINQ4 4:4230Punt17–31
CHIQ4 3:43716Turnover on downs17–31
MINQ4 1:0818End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton33/4832512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery20723.60
Khalil Herbert4112.80
Andy Dalton177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney12161260
Cole Kmet45480
Damiere Byrd56470
Damien Williams35331
Allen Robinson24220
Jimmy Graham22160
Marquise Goodwin23130
Dazz Newsome12130
David Montgomery2370

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins14/2225030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook14795.60
Alexander Mattison5183.60
Justin Jefferson144.00
Kene Nwangwu144.00
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson571071
Ihmir Smith-Marsette331031
K.J. Osborn14211
Tyler Conklin2460
Dalvin Cook1130
Alexander Mattison1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.25