Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play+0.018
- 41.4%Success rate41.6%
- -0.077EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.87CPOE+0.82
- 34.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.62Points / drive2.13
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 33/48 | 325 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 12 | 16 | 126 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Dazz Newsome | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14/22 | 250 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 7 | 107 | 1 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 3 | 3 | 103 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25