2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

51·26

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Gardner Minshew

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.061
  • 46.8%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.091
  • -0.062EPA / rush+0.025
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +1.99CPOE+0.39
  • 43.7%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 2.44Points / drive2.39
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 9:411080Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 5:0830Punt7–7
DALQ1 3:34536Field goal10–7
PHIQ1 1:37930Field goal10–10
DALQ2 12:24774Touchdown17–10
PHIQ2 8:071185Touchdown17–17
DALQ2 3:40875Touchdown23–17
PHIQ2 1:4560Punt23–17
DALQ2 0:24443Touchdown30–17
PHIQ2 0:0500End of half30–17
DALQ3 15:0039Punt30–17
PHIQ3 12:391453Field goal30–20
DALQ3 5:581484Touchdown37–20
PHIQ4 14:333-2Punt37–20
DALQ4 12:44552Touchdown44–20
PHIQ4 10:1610Turnover44–20
DALQ4 10:08326Touchdown51–20
PHIQ4 8:361475Touchdown51–26
DALQ4 1:5000End of half51–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/2729550
Cooper Rush1/11000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott18874.80
Corey Clement7588.30
JaQuan Hardy3268.71
Ito Smith144.01
Cooper Rush3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cedrick Wilson Jr.561192
Amari Cooper57790
CeeDee Lamb22450
Corey Clement44221
Dalton Schultz33212
Jeremy Sprinkle11100
Blake Jarwin1260
Ezekiel Elliott1330

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew19/3318621
Greg Ward1/1200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell12786.51
Jason Huntley13513.90
Gardner Minshew5102.00
Jalen Reagor3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quez Watkins57841
DeVonta Smith34410
Tyree Jackson35221
Jalen Reagor23190
Richard Rodgers22110
Kenny Gainwell4790
Greg Ward1220
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside0300
Jason Huntley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10