Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.061
- 46.8%Success rate46.4%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.062EPA / rush+0.025
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.5%
- +1.99CPOE+0.39
- 43.7%Third-down rate45.5%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.44Points / drive2.39
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/27 | 295 | 5 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 0 |
| JaQuan Hardy | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 5 | 6 | 119 | 2 |
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 21 | 2 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 19/33 | 186 | 2 | 1 |
| Greg Ward | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Jason Huntley | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyree Jackson | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Huntley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10