2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

30·37

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

45

Model margin

-2.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.136EPA / play-0.061
  • 48.9%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.123
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.71CPOE-0.05
  • 43.8%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.73
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
GBQ1 15:001374Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 7:42710Turnover on downs7–0
GBQ1 4:293-7Punt7–0
DETQ1 2:57393Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 1:29833Turnover on downs7–7
DETQ2 12:441057Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 7:00775Touchdown13–14
DETQ2 2:34959Field goal13–17
GBQ2 0:0200End of half13–17
DETQ3 15:0030Punt13–17
GBQ3 14:3131Turnover13–23
DETQ3 12:59136Touchdown13–24
GBQ3 12:501053Field goal16–24
DETQ3 7:3832Punt16–24
GBQ3 6:061257Touchdown22–24
DETQ4 14:121357Field goal22–27
GBQ4 6:39475Touchdown30–27
DETQ4 4:49675Touchdown30–34
GBQ4 1:5420Turnover30–34
DETQ4 1:13416Field goal30–37
GBQ4 0:48318Turnover30–37
DETQ4 0:2100End of half30–37

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers14/1813820
Jordan Love10/1713412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon14634.50
Patrick Taylor11534.81
Aaron Rodgers177.00
Jordan Love1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard56752
Josiah Deguara34661
Davante Adams67550
Dominique Dafney11260
Equanimeous St. Brown25220
Juwann Winfree33160
Amari Rodgers1350
AJ Dillon1140
Patrick Taylor2230
Marcedes Lewis0100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Tyler Davis0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/3023820
Tom Kennedy1/17510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams13433.30
D'Andre Swift7304.31
Kalif Raymond11313.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown11212.00
Craig Reynolds320.70
Tim Boyle1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown8101091
Kalif Raymond451011
Brock Wright22511
Tom Kennedy22160
D'Andre Swift45160
Josh Reynolds13110
Jamaal Williams1190
Godwin Igwebuike0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.5%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.45