Closing spread
GB -4
Total
45
Model margin
-2.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play-0.061
- 48.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.222EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.123
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.71CPOE-0.05
- 43.8%Third-down rate34.7%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 2.45Points / drive1.73
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/18 | 138 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 10/17 | 134 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 75 | 2 |
| Josiah Deguara | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Dominique Dafney | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/30 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 1/1 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 5 | 101 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Tom Kennedy | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.45