Closing spread
IND -14
Total
43
Model margin
-1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.079
- 44.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.055EPA / dropback-0.061
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- -2.41CPOE-4.53
- 41.9%Third-down rate35.6%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.35Points / drive1.33
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/29 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/32 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryquell Armstead | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.36