2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

11·26

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

IND -14

Total

43

Model margin

-1.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.060EPA / play-0.079
  • 44.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback-0.061
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.113
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -2.41CPOE-4.53
  • 41.9%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.35Points / drive1.33
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 7:48520Turnover on downs0–7
JAXQ1 5:57624Punt0–7
INDQ1 1:561157Field goal3–7
JAXQ2 9:081071Field goal3–10
INDQ2 3:063-2Punt3–10
JAXQ2 1:351264Field goal3–13
INDQ3 15:0043Turnover3–13
JAXQ3 12:3332Field goal3–16
INDQ3 11:32732Punt3–16
JAXQ3 8:2931Punt3–16
INDQ3 6:5910Turnover3–16
JAXQ3 6:52645Touchdown3–23
INDQ3 3:081140Turnover on downs3–23
JAXQ4 12:5336Punt3–23
INDQ4 10:314-2Turnover on downs3–23
JAXQ4 9:41518Field goal3–26
INDQ4 8:151085Touchdown11–26
JAXQ4 4:26411End of half11–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz17/2918511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor15775.10
Carson Wentz3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman67641
T.Y. Hilton25390
Mo Alie-Cox23270
Nyheim Hines23190
Jonathan Taylor34180
Jack Doyle12110
Zach Pascal1270
Parris Campbell0300

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/3222320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryquell Armstead9525.80
Dare Ogunbowale11302.70
Trevor Lawrence10171.70
Mekhi Sargent122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones78881
Laviska Shenault Jr.57620
Dare Ogunbowale36250
Laquon Treadwell35241
Jacob Hollister33140
Ryquell Armstead22100
Mekhi Sargent0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -142.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.36