Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play-0.001
- 47.4%Success rate45.2%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.161
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- -0.71CPOE+1.92
- 45.7%Third-down rate36.8%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.55Points / drive1.87
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LV are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 34/64 | 383 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 9 | 17 | 119 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 9 | 45 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 12 | 35 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 20/36 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 132 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Edwards | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 5 | 13 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.94