2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final / OT

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

32·35

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

-0.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRaiders
  • +0.088EPA / play-0.001
  • 47.4%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.161
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -0.71CPOE+1.92
  • 45.7%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 68.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 2.55Points / drive1.87
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LV are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–LV
LVQ1 15:00957Field goal0–3
LACQ1 10:5038Punt0–3
LVQ1 9:11512Punt0–3
LVQ1 6:44623Touchdown0–10
LACQ1 3:141680Touchdown7–10
LVQ2 12:4269Punt7–10
LACQ2 8:541390Touchdown14–10
LVQ2 1:52842Touchdown14–17
LACQ2 0:3732Punt14–17
LVQ2 0:1000End of half14–17
LACQ3 15:00538Missed field goal14–17
LVQ3 11:4232Punt14–17
LACQ3 10:4247Turnover on downs14–17
LVQ3 8:5234Field goal14–20
LACQ3 8:0330Punt14–20
LVQ3 6:311575Touchdown14–26
LACQ4 14:1435Turnover14–26
LVQ4 12:55730Field goal14–29
LACQ4 8:231475Touchdown22–29
LVQ4 4:283-6Punt22–29
LACQ4 2:062078Touchdown29–29
LVOT653Field goal29–32
LACOT857Field goal32–32
LVOT746Field goal32–35

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert34/6438331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler16644.01
Justin Jackson3206.70
Justin Herbert210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams9171191
Jared Cook47800
Keenan Allen68520
Jalen Guyton69520
Josh Palmer49451
Austin Ekeler512351
Justin Jackson0100
Tre' McKitty0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr20/3618620
Marcus Mariota1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs261325.11
Jalen Richard22412.00
Marcus Mariota4235.80
Derek Carr1-1-1.00
Hunter Renfrow1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bryan Edwards45630
Foster Moreau22500
Zay Jones58270
Darren Waller29220
Hunter Renfrow45132
Josh Jacobs22120
Jalen Richard2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.94