Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
-1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.009
- 40.2%Success rate46.3%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -2.66CPOE+0.31
- 39.0%Third-down rate36.5%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 1.65Points / drive1.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 30/44 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 12 | 22 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 7 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 16/31 | 141 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 16 | 150 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ty'Son Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 8 | 15 | 85 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.59