2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

16·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

41

Model margin

-1.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.009
  • 40.2%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -2.66CPOE+0.31
  • 39.0%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.93
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:43526Turnover0–0
PITQ1 9:57634Field goal3–0
BALQ1 6:06415Turnover3–0
PITQ1 3:56411Turnover3–0
BALQ1 1:34530Turnover on downs3–0
PITQ2 14:1431Punt3–0
BALQ2 12:2133Punt3–0
PITQ2 11:26529Punt3–0
BALQ2 8:46725Punt3–0
PITQ2 5:3432Punt3–0
BALQ2 4:29427Punt3–0
PITQ2 2:3530Punt3–0
BALQ2 1:46831Field goal3–3
PITQ2 0:1100End of half3–3
BALQ3 15:00568Touchdown3–10
PITQ3 12:32750Field goal6–10
BALQ3 7:4138Punt6–10
PITQ3 5:343-6Punt6–10
BALQ3 4:06864Turnover6–10
PITQ4 14:53945Punt6–10
BALQ4 9:5539Punt6–10
PITQ4 8:071060Touchdown13–10
BALQ4 2:54640Field goal13–13
PITQ4 1:13419Punt13–13
BALQ4 0:38412Punt13–13
PITQ4 0:0700End of half13–13
BALOT723Punt13–13
PITOT1367Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger30/4424411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Claypool33311.00
Najee Harris11282.50
Benny Snell12221.80
Kalen Ballage100.00
Ben Roethlisberger3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth69530
Diontae Johnson710510
Zach Gentry45390
Ray-Ray McCloud49370
Chase Claypool57371
Najee Harris44270

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley16/3114102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray161509.41
Tyler Huntley12726.00
Devonta Freeman5214.20
Ty'Son Williams144.00
Devin Duvernay122.00
Mark Andrews100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews815850
Marquise Brown38270
Rashod Bateman24220
Devonta Freeman2260
Josh Oliver1110
Sammy Watkins0100
Tylan Wallace0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.49
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.59