2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

28·25

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

TEN -10.5

Total

43

Model margin

-1.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.134
  • 44.7%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.213
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +2.33CPOE-1.54
  • 43.8%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.50
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00925Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:4432Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:0333Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:081268Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 1:22418Punt0–0
TENQ2 14:111294Touchdown7–0
HOUQ2 7:40618Punt7–0
TENQ2 4:20985Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 1:3435Punt14–0
TENQ2 0:44619Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 0:1100End of half21–0
TENQ3 15:0032Punt21–0
HOUQ3 13:28872Touchdown21–7
TENQ3 9:46517Punt21–7
HOUQ3 6:18752Field goal21–10
TENQ3 2:1438Punt21–10
HOUQ3 0:41882Touchdown21–18
TENQ4 11:40875Touchdown28–18
HOUQ4 7:00780Touchdown28–25
TENQ4 4:04637End of half28–25

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3228740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman21693.30
Dontrell Hilliard9576.30
Ryan Tannehill2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine45781
A.J. Brown46681
Julio Jones59581
Anthony Firkser44561
D'Onta Foreman12150
Chester Rogers2240
Geoff Swaim1120
Dontrell Hilliard1110
Racey McMath0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills23/3330130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson5285.60
Rex Burkhead12242.00
Davis Mills4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola791132
Nico Collins37670
Rex Burkhead34420
Chris Moore33381
Brandin Cooks34260
David Johnson3480
Antony Auclair1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.79