Closing spread
TEN -10.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.134
- 44.7%Success rate37.6%
- +0.092EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.1%
- +2.33CPOE-1.54
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.7%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.50
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/32 | 287 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 4 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 23/33 | 301 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 7 | 9 | 113 | 2 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.79