2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

22·7

Giants

New York

QB Jake Fromm

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

36

Model margin

-2.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.141
  • 44.8%Success rate40.2%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback-0.146
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.133
  • 8.3%Explosive rate5.7%
  • -0.08CPOE-4.62
  • 38.3%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.20
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:001076Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 9:031039Turnover on downs3–0
WASQ1 2:43519Punt3–0
NYGQ2 14:5232Punt3–0
WASQ2 13:1533Punt3–0
NYGQ2 11:213-3Punt3–0
WASQ2 9:23637Punt3–0
NYGQ2 5:4233Punt3–0
WASQ2 4:083-2Punt3–0
NYGQ2 2:3537Punt3–0
WASQ2 1:34444Field goal6–0
NYGQ3 15:00616Punt6–0
WASQ3 11:451054Punt6–0
NYGQ3 5:44412Opp touchdown12–0
NYGQ3 3:411469Touchdown12–7
WASQ4 11:24872Touchdown19–7
NYGQ4 6:281-7Turnover19–7
WASQ4 6:2037Field goal22–7
NYGQ4 4:403-7Punt22–7
WASQ4 4:07615Punt22–7
NYGQ4 1:571046Turnover22–7

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke9/1812000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson211467.01
Jonathan Williams7456.40
Jaret Patterson6213.50
DeAndre Carter11111.00
Taylor Heinicke231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin46930
Jaret Patterson22140
Antonio Gibson1350
John Bates1250
Adam Humphries1230
DeAndre Carter0100
Cam Sims0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Fromm15/3110312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Fromm55310.60
Saquon Barkley11302.70
Devontae Booker8141.80
Alex Bachman1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton23291
Kenny Golladay35220
Saquon Barkley34190
Kyle Rudolph46170
Devontae Booker22120
Evan Engram1540
David Sills0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.8%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.72