2021 · Week 18 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
36
Model margin
-2.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.141
- 44.8%Success rate40.2%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.146
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.7%
- -0.08CPOE-4.62
- 38.3%Third-down rate35.9%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 1.78Points / drive1.20
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 9/18 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 21 | 146 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Fromm | 15/31 | 103 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Fromm | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Alex Bachman | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| David Sills | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.8%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.72