Closing spread
LA -4
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.082
- 46.8%Success rate46.6%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.183
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +4.19CPOE-0.40
- 45.2%Third-down rate42.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.37Points / drive2.32
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/34 | 137 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 13/17 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1/1 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jake Funk | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54