2021 · WC · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

11·34

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -4

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapRams
  • +0.079EPA / play+0.082
  • 46.8%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.183
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.089
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +4.19CPOE-0.40
  • 45.2%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.32
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. LA are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–LA
ARIQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:44433Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:543-1Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:551062Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 3:503-6Punt0–7
LAQ1 2:15968Touchdown0–14
ARIQ2 11:583-1Punt0–14
LAQ2 10:3036Punt0–14
ARIQ2 8:4533Opp touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 7:59735Turnover0–21
LAQ2 4:4646Punt0–21
ARIQ2 2:4636Punt0–21
LAQ2 1:5335Punt0–21
ARIQ2 0:3510End of half0–21
LAQ3 15:00970Touchdown0–28
ARIQ3 10:361268Touchdown8–28
LAQ3 4:11660Field goal8–31
ARIQ4 14:551048Field goal11–31
LAQ4 10:13962Field goal11–34
ARIQ4 4:21519Turnover on downs11–34
LAQ4 3:0433Punt11–34
ARIQ4 1:0528End of half11–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray19/3413702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds8283.50
James Conner4194.81
Eno Benjamin482.00
Kyler Murray263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk611510
Rondale Moore56320
Eno Benjamin22260
Zach Ertz34210
James Conner1250
Darrell Daniels2320
A.J. Green0300
Chase Edmonds0100
Antoine Wesley0200

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford13/1720220
Odell Beckham Jr.1/14000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel13584.50
Cam Akers17553.20
Matthew Stafford6223.71
Jake Funk252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp57611
Odell Beckham Jr.44541
Tyler Higbee34460
Van Jefferson11410
Cam Akers12400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.54