2022 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

7·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.004
  • 46.2%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.52CPOE+1.66
  • 39.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.04
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
MINQ1 15:001078Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 9:17513Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:283-5Punt0–7
GBQ1 5:2766Punt0–7
MINQ1 1:52520Punt0–7
GBQ2 14:111079Turnover on downs0–7
MINQ2 7:58794Field goal0–10
GBQ2 3:5433Punt0–10
MINQ2 2:58774Touchdown0–17
GBQ2 0:3510Turnover0–17
MINQ2 0:2731Punt0–17
GBQ2 0:0600End of half0–17
GBQ3 15:00515Turnover0–17
MINQ3 12:0645Field goal0–20
GBQ3 9:46775Touchdown7–20
MINQ3 5:16520Punt7–20
GBQ3 1:13726Punt7–20
MINQ4 11:521174Field goal7–23
GBQ4 6:481157Turnover on downs7–23
MINQ4 3:45734Punt7–23
GBQ4 1:02465End of half7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3419501
Jordan Love4/56500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones5499.80
AJ Dillon10454.51
Romeo Doubs11111.00
Christian Watson177.00
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
AJ Dillon56460
Romeo Doubs45370
Robert Tonyan35360
Christian Watson24340
Josiah Deguara22280
Aaron Jones35270
Sammy Watkins33180
Juwann Winfree11170
Randall Cobb23140
Tyler Davis1130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/3227720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook20904.50
Alexander Mattison8364.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson9111842
Adam Thielen34360
Dalvin Cook35180
Johnny Mundt33170
K.J. Osborn34140
Ben Ellefson1120
Irv Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.97