Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.004
- 46.2%Success rate45.8%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.52CPOE+1.66
- 39.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.91Points / drive2.04
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/34 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 4/5 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Juwann Winfree | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/32 | 277 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 184 | 2 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Ellefson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.97