Closing spread
IND -7
Total
46
Model margin
+1.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.167
- 40.3%Success rate38.0%
- -0.139EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.204
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.42CPOE-4.69
- 33.3%Third-down rate30.1%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.33Points / drive1.17
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 32/50 | 352 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 31 | 161 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 9 | 13 | 121 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 23/37 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 2 | 38 | 2 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Troy Hairston | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.38