2022 · Week 1 · Division

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

20·20

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

46

Model margin

+1.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

4.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • -0.154EPA / play-0.167
  • 40.3%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.204
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.42CPOE-4.69
  • 33.3%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.17
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:0838Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:591147Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 5:1335Punt3–0
INDQ1 3:461066Turnover on downs3–0
HOUQ2 14:101369Field goal3–3
INDQ2 7:50653Turnover3–3
HOUQ2 4:26525Touchdown3–10
INDQ2 2:37833Punt3–10
HOUQ2 0:38637End of half3–10
HOUQ3 15:00450Field goal3–13
INDQ3 12:17920Turnover3–13
HOUQ3 8:56443Touchdown3–20
INDQ3 7:1634Punt3–20
HOUQ3 6:161337Punt3–20
INDQ4 14:461081Field goal6–20
HOUQ4 10:442-3Turnover6–20
INDQ4 9:49420Touchdown13–20
HOUQ4 7:42513Punt13–20
INDQ4 4:29780Touchdown20–20
HOUQ4 1:5434Punt20–20
INDQ4 1:16735Punt20–20
HOUQ4 0:1100End of half20–20
HOUOT3-11Punt20–20
INDOT1248Missed field goal20–20
HOUOT524Punt20–20
INDOT221End of half20–20

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan32/5035211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor311615.21
Matt Ryan4123.00
Nyheim Hines341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman9131211
Nyheim Hines66500
Ashton Dulin36460
Parris Campbell34370
Mike Strachan22360
Mo Alie-Cox22260
Kylen Granson37220
Jonathan Taylor47140
Alec Pierce0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills23/3724020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead14402.90
Dameon Pierce11333.00
Jeff Driskel155.00
Davis Mills2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks712820
O.J. Howard22382
Chris Moore33310
Rex Burkhead58300
Nico Collins23260
Pharaoh Brown11170
Dameon Pierce1160
Brevin Jordan1250
Troy Hairston1150
Chris Conley0200
Phillip Dorsett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.38