Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.007
- 43.4%Success rate44.1%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.057
- 9.9%Explosive rate6.9%
- -2.03CPOE+1.13
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.5%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.10Points / drive1.97
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 22/37 | 295 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 17 | 141 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/34 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.62