2022 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

19·24

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Nothing filed.

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChargers
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.007
  • 43.4%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.057
  • 9.9%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -2.03CPOE+1.13
  • 39.7%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.97
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LAC
LACQ1 15:001150Field goal0–3
LVQ1 9:031370Field goal3–3
LACQ1 2:2939Punt3–3
LVQ1 0:2839Punt3–3
LACQ2 13:18966Touchdown3–10
LVQ2 9:34516Punt3–10
LACQ2 7:071078Turnover on downs3–10
LVQ2 1:382-3Turnover3–10
LACQ2 0:45231Touchdown3–17
LVQ2 0:3511End of half3–17
LVQ3 15:00575Touchdown10–17
LACQ3 12:391173Touchdown10–24
LVQ3 6:421043Field goal13–24
LACQ3 1:0335Punt13–24
LVQ4 14:41333Turnover13–24
LACQ4 13:1039Punt13–24
LVQ4 11:3928Turnover13–24
LACQ4 11:00618Missed field goal13–24
LVQ4 7:33861Touchdown19–24
LACQ4 4:3237Punt19–24
LVQ4 3:3057Turnover on downs19–24
LACQ4 1:52311End of half19–24

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr22/3729523

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs10575.70
Brandon Bolden372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10171411
Darren Waller46790
Brandon Bolden22211
Hunter Renfrow36210
Mack Hollins11160
Josh Jacobs11160
Jakob Johnson1110
Ameer Abdullah0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert26/3427930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14362.60
Joshua Kelley4215.30
Sony Michel7121.70
Josh Palmer144.00
Zander Horvath122.00
Justin Herbert410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen44660
DeAndre Carter34641
Gerald Everett34541
Austin Ekeler44360
Tre' McKitty34240
Joshua Kelley22140
Mike Williams24100
Zander Horvath2261
Josh Palmer3450
Richard Rodgers0100
Jalen Guyton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.62