Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
47
Model margin
+1.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.054
- 41.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.050
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.93CPOE+0.08
- 35.3%Third-down rate37.6%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.54Points / drive2.11
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 21/30 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/33 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.20