2022 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

7·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

47

Model margin

+1.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.054
  • 41.1%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.050
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.93CPOE+0.08
  • 35.3%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.11
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2021 · W18NE @ MIA24–33MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
NEQ1 15:00853Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 9:521042Field goal0–3
NEQ1 4:05840Punt0–3
MIAQ2 14:071045Punt0–3
NEQ2 7:452-13Opp touchdown0–10
NEQ2 7:34630Punt0–10
MIAQ2 4:051097Touchdown0–17
NEQ2 0:1800End of half0–17
MIAQ3 15:0038Punt0–17
NEQ3 13:051682Touchdown7–17
MIAQ3 4:44750Field goal7–20
NEQ3 0:19617Punt7–20
MIAQ4 12:4739Punt7–20
NEQ4 11:0747Turnover on downs7–20
MIAQ4 9:3869Punt7–20
NEQ4 5:59557Turnover7–20
MIAQ4 4:55947End of half7–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones21/3021311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris9485.30
Rhamondre Stevenson8253.10
Jakobi Meyers177.00
Mac Jones200.00
Ty Montgomery2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers46550
Kendrick Bourne11410
Jonnu Smith34330
Nelson Agholor35280
Hunter Henry23200
Ty Montgomery34151
Damien Harris23100
DeVante Parker1290
Rhamondre Stevenson2220

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa23/3327010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Edmonds12252.10
Raheem Mostert5163.20
Cedrick Wilson Jr.188.00
Jaylen Waddle188.00
Tyreek Hill166.00
Tua Tagovailoa200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill812940
Jaylen Waddle45691
Chase Edmonds44400
Cedrick Wilson Jr.22200
Raheem Mostert11160
Durham Smythe12140
Trent Sherfield1280
Mike Gesicki1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.20