Closing spread
NE -6
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutKyle DuggerSHand· DNP
- QuestionableAdrian PhillipsSKnee· Limited
- QuestionableChristian BarmoreDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableCody DavisSWrist· Limited
- QuestionableDamien HarrisRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDavid AndrewsCShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableIsaiah WynnTHip· Limited
- QuestionableJakobi MeyersWRThigh· Limited
- QuestionableNick FolkKleft Knee· Limited
- LimitedNelson AgholorWRConcussion
Dolphins
- LimitedDeVante ParkerWRNot injury related - resting player
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play-0.046
- 48.6%Success rate41.8%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.180
- 11.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- +2.93CPOE-0.02
- 45.5%Third-down rate41.1%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 2.41Points / drive1.58
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 7:34 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| NE | Q1 6:07 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIA | Q1 3:07 | 14 | 62 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| NE | Q2 11:09 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q2 7:36 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NE | Q2 5:26 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q2 4:23 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–17 |
| NE | Q2 3:22 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q2 1:02 | 7 | 35 | End of half | 7–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 43 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 8:27 | 10 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NE | Q3 4:31 | 6 | 53 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q3 2:25 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q4 15:00 | 1 | 2 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q4 14:23 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| NE | Q4 10:55 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| MIA | Q4 6:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–27 |
| NE | Q4 4:49 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| MIA | Q4 2:53 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 24–33 |
| NE | Q4 0:03 | 1 | -2 | Opp touchdown | 24–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 20/30 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 15/22 | 109 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 25 | 117 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.61