Closing spread
GB -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.017
- 41.1%Success rate46.2%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.009
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- -4.05CPOE+0.52
- 41.0%Third-down rate39.3%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.78Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 7/11 | 70 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 15 | 122 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/25 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 132 | 8.8 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 4 | 93 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.60