2022 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

10·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

GB -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.017
  • 41.1%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.009
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -4.05CPOE+0.52
  • 41.0%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 60.7%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.91
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:001243Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 8:33771Touchdown7–3
GBQ1 4:37970Touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 14:543-2Punt7–10
GBQ2 12:493-11Punt7–10
CHIQ2 11:5038Punt7–10
GBQ2 10:111064Touchdown7–17
CHIQ2 4:3634Punt7–17
GBQ2 3:10767Touchdown7–24
CHIQ2 0:3213End of half7–24
CHIQ3 15:0037Punt7–24
GBQ3 13:00658Turnover7–24
CHIQ3 9:13643Field goal10–24
GBQ3 5:11824Punt10–24
CHIQ4 14:531394Turnover on downs10–24
GBQ4 8:07989Field goal10–27
CHIQ4 2:2820Turnover10–27
GBQ4 2:09311End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields7/117001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery151228.10
Khalil Herbert4389.50
Justin Fields8202.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Equanimeous St. Brown24390
Ryan Griffin11180
David Montgomery22140
Khalil Herbert1130
Cole Kmet0100
Darnell Mooney12-40

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2523420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones151328.81
AJ Dillon18613.40
Aaron Rodgers5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins34930
Aaron Jones33381
Randall Cobb33370
Romeo Doubs23270
Allen Lazard23131
Robert Tonyan22110
Christian Watson3390
AJ Dillon1360
Tyler Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.60