Closing spread
KC -4
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.179
- 44.1%Success rate50.6%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.019
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.13CPOE+3.02
- 43.5%Third-down rate49.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 1.97Points / drive2.71
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 33/48 | 334 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 8 | 10 | 113 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 10 | 55 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 8 | 30 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/35 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40