2022 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

24·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

KC -4

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.179
  • 44.1%Success rate50.6%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.019
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.13CPOE+3.02
  • 43.5%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.71
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
KCQ1 15:00729Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:391159Field goal3–0
KCQ1 5:583-11Punt3–0
LACQ1 3:47858Touchdown10–0
KCQ2 14:57870Touchdown10–7
LACQ2 11:38620Punt10–7
KCQ2 8:55521Punt10–7
LACQ2 5:15629Punt10–7
KCQ2 0:53410Punt10–7
LACQ2 0:0600End of half10–7
LACQ3 15:001175Touchdown17–7
KCQ3 9:52875Touchdown17–14
LACQ3 7:2238Punt17–14
KCQ3 6:2439Punt17–14
LACQ3 4:563-7Punt17–14
KCQ3 3:59840Field goal17–17
LACQ4 14:58857Opp touchdown17–24
LACQ4 10:2936Punt17–24
KCQ4 8:15520Punt17–24
LACQ4 5:55624Punt17–24
KCQ4 3:55457Field goal17–27
LACQ4 3:20973Touchdown24–27
KCQ4 1:1100End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert33/4833431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14392.80
Joshua Kelley4225.50
Sony Michel4133.30
Justin Herbert210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams8101131
Gerald Everett610710
DeAndre Carter33550
Austin Ekeler910550
Josh Palmer48301
Sony Michel1160
Joshua Kelley1230
Zander Horvath1211

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3523520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire8749.30
Jerick McKinnon4123.00
Isiah Pacheco263.00
Patrick Mahomes2-1-0.50
Mecole Hardman1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce57510
Justin Watson22501
Mecole Hardman34490
Clyde Edwards-Helaire44440
Marquez Valdes-Scantling27130
Noah Gray23120
JuJu Smith-Schuster33100
Jerick McKinnon2241
Joseph Fortson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40