2022 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

7·27

49ers

San Francisco

QB Trey Lance

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

SF -8.5

Total

40

Model margin

+1.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.8%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.021
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +5.46CPOE-1.99
  • 37.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 54.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.20
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:001073Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 9:16622Punt0–3
SFQ1 5:53769Field goal0–6
SEAQ1 1:26515Punt0–6
SFQ2 13:35562Touchdown0–13
SEAQ2 11:19315Turnover0–13
SFQ2 9:53511Turnover on downs0–13
SEAQ2 7:42832Turnover0–13
SFQ2 4:12422Punt0–13
SFQ2 1:49422Touchdown0–20
SEAQ2 1:26856End of half0–20
SEAQ3 15:0038Punt0–20
SFQ3 12:491154Opp touchdown7–20
SFQ3 5:25916Punt7–20
SEAQ3 1:2339Punt7–20
SFQ4 14:5265Punt7–20
SEAQ4 12:31615Punt7–20
SFQ4 9:001539Touchdown7–27
SEAQ4 1:51744End of half7–27

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith24/3019701
DeeJay Dallas0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny6152.50
Kenneth Walker III4102.50
Travis Homer294.50
Geno Smith221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett9111070
DK Metcalf46350
Travis Homer44330
Noah Fant22110
Dee Eskridge1160
Kenneth Walker III2350
Marquise Goodwin0100
Will Dissly2200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo13/2115410
Trey Lance2/33000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson18844.70
Deebo Samuel Sr.45313.30
Tyrion Davis-Price14332.40
Trey Lance3134.30
Jimmy Garoppolo451.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk58630
Deebo Samuel Sr.56440
Ross Dwelley11381
Jeff Wilson22190
Ray-Ray McCloud12160
Jauan Jennings1240
Danny Gray0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.52
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.03