Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.084
- 44.8%Success rate46.1%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- +5.46CPOE-1.99
- 37.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.05Points / drive2.20
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 24/30 | 197 | 0 | 1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 11 | 107 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 13/21 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 2/3 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Danny Gray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.52
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.03