2022 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

23·16

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.033
  • 45.2%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.004
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.95CPOE+1.68
  • 46.2%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.02
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:00635Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:531154Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 7:40955Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 2:091351Field goal3–3
DALQ2 11:17453Field goal6–3
NYGQ2 9:0947Punt6–3
DALQ2 7:231052Punt6–3
NYGQ2 2:30843Turnover on downs6–3
DALQ2 0:08112Missed field goal6–3
NYGQ3 15:001142Field goal6–6
DALQ3 9:023-2Punt6–6
NYGQ3 8:00677Touchdown6–13
DALQ3 5:31975Touchdown13–13
NYGQ3 0:27410Punt13–13
DALQ4 14:421283Touchdown20–13
NYGQ4 8:3032Punt20–13
DALQ4 7:3239Field goal23–13
NYGQ4 5:58938Field goal23–16
DALQ4 3:37521Punt23–16
NYGQ4 1:45312Turnover23–16
DALQ4 1:1100End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush21/3121510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard131058.10
Ezekiel Elliott15734.91
Cooper Rush2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb812871
Noah Brown57540
Peyton Hendershot33430
Jake Ferguson23130
Simi Fehoko11120
Jalen Tolbert1240
Ezekiel Elliott1120
Tony Pollard0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones20/3719601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley14815.81
Daniel Jones9798.80
Richie James144.00
Matt Breida133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard510490
Saquon Barkley44450
Daniel Bellinger45400
Richie James45360
David Sills24200
Chris Myarick1160
Kenny Golladay0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.87