Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play+0.033
- 45.2%Success rate45.0%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.004
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.95CPOE+1.68
- 46.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 2.26Points / drive2.02
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 21/31 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 13 | 105 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 12 | 87 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Simi Fehoko | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 20/37 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Richie James | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| David Sills | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.87