Closing spread
IND -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.132
- 45.1%Success rate40.7%
- +0.094EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.1%
- -4.46CPOE-3.02
- 42.3%Third-down rate33.1%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
- 1.62Points / drive0.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 17/35 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 12 | 81 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 5 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 10/22 | 162 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 226 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 15 | 101 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Baldwin | 2 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Devon Wylie | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.62