2012 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

20·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Brady Quinn

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -4.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-3.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.132
  • 45.1%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -4.46CPOE-3.02
  • 42.3%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate38.7%
  • 1.62Points / drive0.91
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–KC
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:56522Opp touchdown7–0
KCQ1 10:08661Field goal7–3
INDQ1 8:18511Punt7–3
KCQ1 4:541153Missed field goal7–3
INDQ1 0:41637Field goal10–3
KCQ2 13:27533Punt10–3
INDQ2 10:341138Punt10–3
KCQ2 5:271177Turnover10–3
INDQ2 1:02660Field goal13–3
KCQ2 0:0700End of half13–3
KCQ3 15:00186Touchdown13–10
INDQ3 14:40433Punt13–10
KCQ3 13:37559Turnover13–10
INDQ3 11:4239Punt13–10
KCQ3 10:02828Field goal13–13
INDQ3 6:0065Punt13–13
KCQ3 4:26638Punt13–13
INDQ3 1:3735Punt13–13
KCQ3 0:331051Turnover on downs13–13
INDQ4 10:131468Touchdown20–13
KCQ4 4:0830Punt20–13
INDQ4 2:30313End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck17/3520510
T.Y. Hilton0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard20693.50
Andrew Luck6213.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne512811
Donnie Avery510380
T.Y. Hilton24340
Mewelde Moore11320
Dwayne Allen33180
Coby Fleener1320
LaVon Brazill0300

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn10/2216202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles2222610.31
Peyton Hillis151016.70
Brady Quinn5112.20
Dexter McCluster11010.00
Shaun Draughn144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jon Baldwin26640
Devon Wylie34360
Dexter McCluster34300
Jamar Newsome12280
Jamaal Charles1340
Peyton Hillis0100
Steve Maneri0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.62