Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play-0.081
- 41.2%Success rate40.7%
- -0.094EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.084
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.3%
- -2.69CPOE-1.70
- 40.2%Third-down rate35.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.57Points / drive1.60
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/25 | 249 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Skowronek | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 37/58 | 314 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 14 | 17 | 140 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 9 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Andre Baccellia | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.68