2022 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

20·12

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

-0.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.083EPA / play-0.081
  • 41.2%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.094EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.084
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -2.69CPOE-1.70
  • 40.2%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.60
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:34841Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 9:4532Punt3–0
LAQ1 8:50763Touchdown10–0
ARIQ1 4:00416Punt10–0
LAQ1 1:31563Field goal13–0
ARIQ2 13:233-4Punt13–0
LAQ2 12:2338Punt13–0
ARIQ2 11:211975Field goal13–3
LAQ2 1:5135Punt13–3
ARIQ2 0:48867Field goal13–6
LAQ2 0:0200End of half13–6
LAQ3 15:0035Punt13–6
ARIQ3 12:571558Field goal13–9
LAQ3 5:10985Touchdown20–9
ARIQ3 1:001254Turnover on downs20–9
LAQ4 11:29871Turnover20–9
ARIQ4 6:391689Field goal20–12
LAQ4 1:0700End of half20–12

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/2524900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers12615.11
Cooper Kupp12020.01
Darrell Henderson4174.30
Matthew Stafford320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ben Skowronek44660
Tyler Higbee44610
Cooper Kupp46440
Kendall Blanton11280
Brandon Powell33270
Allen Robinson25230
Darrell Henderson0100
Tutu Atwell0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray37/5831400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner13393.00
Eno Benjamin5163.20
Kyler Murray284.00
Darrel Williams177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown14171400
Greg Dortch910800
Zach Ertz610450
James Conner35180
Andre Baccellia24130
Andy Isabella12110
Eno Benjamin2470
A.J. Green0200
Darrel Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.68