Closing spread
NO -7
Total
37
Model margin
+5.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.063
- 41.2%Success rate41.1%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.003
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.147
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- -7.50CPOE-5.00
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.43Points / drive1.88
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/26 | 132 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 17/28 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 6 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
40.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.38
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.34