2022 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

24·8

Commanders

Washington

QB Carson Wentz

FedExField · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

47

Model margin

-0.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.066
  • 47.9%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.045
  • +0.072EPA / rush-0.092
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.05CPOE-1.41
  • 46.2%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.43Points / drive1.48
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:08716Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:413-7Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:193-3Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:15623Punt0–0
PHIQ1 3:00764Field goal3–0
WASQ2 14:532-1Turnover3–0
PHIQ2 14:03224Touchdown10–0
WASQ2 13:18615Punt10–0
PHIQ2 10:35886Turnover on downs10–0
WASQ2 7:0844Punt10–0
PHIQ2 5:45747Touchdown17–0
WASQ2 2:5633Punt17–0
PHIQ2 1:571188Touchdown24–0
PHIQ3 15:00431Punt24–0
WASQ3 13:0037Punt24–0
PHIQ3 10:56524Punt24–0
WASQ3 7:4338Punt24–0
PHIQ3 6:0530Punt24–0
WASQ3 5:371583Turnover on downs24–2
PHIQ4 14:101-1Safety24–2
WASQ4 14:061425Turnover on downs24–2
PHIQ4 8:55611Punt24–2
WASQ4 5:051367Touchdown24–8
PHIQ4 1:55416End of half24–8

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts22/3534030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders15463.10
Jalen Hurts9202.20
Kenny Gainwell362.00
Zach Pascal100.00
Boston Scott200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith8121691
A.J. Brown510851
Grant Calcaterra11400
Dallas Goedert34261
Zach Pascal33180
Jack Stoll1240
Quez Watkins0100
Miles Sanders11-20

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/4321100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson12383.21
Carson Wentz3227.30
Curtis Samuel3134.30
J.D. McKissic382.70
Jonathan Williams166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin691020
Curtis Samuel710480
J.D. McKissic69320
Dax Milne11120
Jahan Dotson28100
Logan Thomas2350
Antonio Gibson1120
John Bates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.61