2022 · Week 3 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
47
Model margin
-0.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.066
- 47.9%Success rate40.9%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.045
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.092
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.05CPOE-1.41
- 46.2%Third-down rate34.9%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.43Points / drive1.48
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 22/35 | 340 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 12 | 169 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 10 | 85 | 1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/43 | 211 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 9 | 102 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 6 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.61