Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.001
- 44.7%Success rate45.2%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.161
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.34CPOE+1.92
- 38.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.89Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 15/22 | 153 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 7 | -4 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 20/25 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 27 | 129 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 3 | 40 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93