2021 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

13·17

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

42

Model margin

+3.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRaiders
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.001
  • 44.7%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.161
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.34CPOE+1.92
  • 38.3%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.87
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LV
DENQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:38953Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:2286Punt0–0
LVQ1 3:251561Touchdown0–7
DENQ2 11:01559Field goal3–7
LVQ2 7:24420Punt3–7
DENQ2 4:2639Punt3–7
LVQ2 2:4427Turnover3–7
DENQ2 2:0034Field goal6–7
LVQ2 0:3210Turnover12–7
DENQ2 0:1811Touchdown13–7
LVQ2 0:1500End of half13–7
LVQ3 15:00975Touchdown13–14
DENQ3 10:22422Punt13–14
LVQ3 7:55845Turnover13–14
DENQ3 3:19521Missed field goal13–14
LVQ3 0:131232Field goal13–17
DENQ4 7:35719Punt13–17
LVQ4 3:54553End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock15/2215300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams7121.71
Drew Lock2105.00
Melvin Gordon7-4-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy34600
Courtland Sutton45330
Noah Fant34300
Tim Patrick24180
Javonte Williams2280
Melvin Gordon1140
Albert Okwuegbunam0200

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr20/2520111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs271294.80
Peyton Barber5224.41
Derek Carr750.70
Jalen Richard144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Foster Moreau44670
Zay Jones68500
DeSean Jackson45440
Hunter Renfrow33401
Jalen Richard1150
Peyton Barber1100
Josh Jacobs13-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.93